Dynamic change and its prediction of ecological footprint in ecotone of Yunnan Province:A case study of Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County

Abstract

Abstract: Prediction research is one of the important issues in ecological footprint(EF) study,which could overcome the static limitation of EF calculation through simulating the changing trend of EF,and have practical meaning in predicting and making strategic decision on regional sustainable development.In this study,the concept of EF and its calculation method were introduced to quantitatively assess the sustainability of Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County,northwest Yunnan Province,from 1949 to 2001.Based on the TM images in 1988,1996 and 2001,the calculation of the ecological capacity(EC) showed that on the whole,the EF of this County had an ascending trend from 1949 to 2001,being increased from 0.2938 hm²穋apita^-1 in 1949 to 1.351 8 hm²穋apita^-1 in 2001,and thus,the pressure on local ecological environment becoming more and more serious because of the rising consumption level.In test period,this County was under 'ecological surplus',and there was a harmonious relationship between social-economic development and environment.The prediction results indicated that the EF would be higher than the EC in 2015,if the present development rate could be kept,which meant that Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County would use more biologically productive land within its borders,and highly depend upon external ecosystems to provide its needed food,material,energy resource and waste digestion.Such a development state should be unsustainable.

Key words: Jiuding Mountain, Betula albo-sinensis population, Spatial pattern, T-square

CLC Number:

JIANG Yiyi, WANG Yanglin, ZHANG Yuan . Dynamic change and its prediction of ecological footprint in ecotone of Yunnan Province:A case study of Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County[J]. cje, 2005, (12): 1418-1424.

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