Abstract: Exploring the spatiotemporal variation and improvement pathways of cultivated land use eco-efficiency (CLUE) in Northeast China, a key grain-producing area in China, is of great theoretical and practical significance for achieving regional cultivated land ecological protection, balancing food supply and demand, and promoting sustainable cultivated land use. In this study, we developed an analytical framework for CLUE based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and applied the Super-Efficiency Slack-Based Measure (Super-SBM) model to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in CLUE across the three provinces in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020. Key factors influencing CLUE were identified using the Random Forest model and piecewise linear regression analysis. Future directions and policy recommendations were proposed to enhance CLUE. We found that CLUE in the three provinces increased from 0.462 in 2000 to 0.636 in 2020, indicating an overall upward trend but with low efficiency. There were significant spatial differentiations of CLUE, presenting the characteristics of “high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and low in the south”. Population density, urbanization level, irrigation index, temperature, and precipitation were identified as the primary pressure factors influencing CLUE, with noticeable threshold effects. It is recommended that policymakers develop differentiated development strategies according to the levels of efficiency, and regulate and adapt to the key pressure factors to enhance CLUE.

Key words: cultivated land use eco-efficiency, Pressure-State-Response model, Super-SBM model, influencing factor, the three provinces in Northeast China