Abstract: The analysis on spatial-temporal variations of landscape stability under different scenarios is of importance to ecological security pattern construction and landscape planning. Based on GlobeLand30 land use data from three periods in 2000-2020 and multi-scenario simulation settings, we quantitatively analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of landscape stability in northern Zhejiang, using MCCA (Mixed-cell Cellular Automata) model and landscape stability evaluation model. The results showed that the mean value of landscape stability of various types in northern Zhejiang in 2000-2020 was in an order of forest>farmland>construction land>water>grassland>sea area, and that the area proportion and transformation of different landscape types were important factors influencing the variations of regional landscape stability. There were differences in the variations of landscape stabi-lity of various types in 2030. Construction land had the highest stability under the scenario of urban construction (0.098). Landscape stability of farmland was basically unchanged under the scenario of farmland control (0.812). The change rate of landscape stability in northern Zhejiang increased first and then decreased in the temporal dimension, with an unbalanced trend in the spatial dimension. Our results provided the theoretical basis and decision basis for regulation and control of ecological landscape pattern in northern Zhejiang.

Key words: land use, landscape pattern, multi-scenario simulation, landscape stability, temporal and spatial change.