Abstract: Assessing the vulnerability of large-scale forest ecosystems is of great significance for maintaining regional ecological security and ensuring sustainable development of our society. In this study, we selected 13 indicators to construct the ecological vulnerability index system of Northeast China forest belt from the perspective of natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Combined with the spatial principal component analysis, we evaluated the spatial and temporal distribution and changes of ecological vulnerability in the forest belt in 2005 and 2015, and analyzed the main driving factors. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the forest belt was mainly potential vulnerability, slight vulnerability, and light vulnerability, with the ecological vulnerability at low level. The spatial aggregation effect of ecological vulnerability was strong and mainly comprised of high-high aggregation. Area with high-high aggregation was mainly distributed near the border of the forest belt. The regional ecological vulnerability index in 2005 and 2015 was 2.339 and 2.450, respectively, showing a slightly worse trend. The main driving factors of ecological vulnerability of the forest belt in the two periods were net primary productivity, land use type, and habitat quality. Our results provide a theoretical basis and decisionmaking basis for large-scale forest ecosystem protection and management.

Key words: ecological barrier, ecological vulnerability, spatial principal component, geodetector.