Abstract: Temperature is one of the key factors determining insect colonization, geographical distribution, abundance, life history, and behavior. Periodic or seasonal low temperature restricts latitudinal distribution of insects. Tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is native to South America. After being introduced to Spain in 2006, it spread rapidly to more than 90 countries (regions) in Europe, Africa, and Asia. It is a global invasive pest now. The goal of this study was to clarify the natural overwintering boundary of T. absoluta. Based on development status of T. absoluta under different temperatures, the overwintering regionalization was projected using the statistical technique of continuous low temperature days, MaxEnt model, and CLIMEX model, respectively. We found that the overwintering areas of the moth in natural environment were mainly distributed in tropical zones, subtropical zones, and partial temperate zones. Non-overwintering areas were mainly distributed in the temperate and frigid zones. In Eurasian continent, the overwintering boundary of T. absolutawas about 40°N on the west part and along 30°N in the central and eastern parts. The three modeling predictions were consistent with the documented overwintering areas in literature. We speculate that the outbreak of moth in non-overwintering areas was due to greenhouses that provided refuges for the pest to survive in winter and extend north wards or higher latitudes.

Key words: invasive pest, overwintering regionalization, potential geographical distribution, CLIMEX, MaxEnt.