Abstract: It is of great significance to understand future land use transformation and the change of eco-environmental effect in a watershed for the development of territorial space planning and eco-environmental protection. Based on the land use data of Xiangjiang Watershed in the four periods from 2000 to 2015, we integrated FLUS model, eco-environmental quality index, and ecological contribution rate to quantitatively analyze the past and future land use transformation characteristics and changes of eco-environmental effect. During the period of 2000-2015, the land use transformation in Xiangjiang Watershed was mainly manifested as an increase of production and living land, but a decrease in ecological land. The ecoenvironmental quality of Xiangjiang Watershed decreased from 0.641 in 2000 to 0.637 in 2015. The occupation of forestry ecological land and agricultural production land by industrial and mining production land, urban and rural living land was the main reason for the eco-environmental deterioration. Under the 2030 baseline scenario and rapid development scenario, the area expansion of poor-quality zone, low-quality zone and medium-quality zone accelerated, and the ecoenvironmental quality dropped to 0.6334 and 0.6327 respectively, indicating a more severe ecoenvironmental deterioration. Under the ecological protection scenario, the trend of eco-environmental deterioration began to slow down, the ecoenvironmental quality increased to 0.639, and the area of high-quality area increased significantly. In general, the trend of eco-environmental deterioration in the Xiangjiang Watershed in the past 15 years was greater than that of eco-environmental improvement, and such trend would be intensified in the next 15 years. Simulating future land use transformation under multiple scenarios and quantitatively studying changes in ecoenvironmental effects can provide policy and decision-making references for territorial space planning and ecological control in the Xiangjiang Watershed.

Key words: multiple scenarios, production-ecological-living space, land use transformation, eco-environmental effect, Xiangjiang River Watershed.