关键词: 红树植物, 最大熵模型, 气候变化, 环境适宜性, 风险分析

Abstract: As a typical exotic mangrove species, the invasiveness and invasion degree of Sonneratia apetala have long been key research focuses. At present, there is no consensus on the invasiveness of S. apetala in China. Based on the optimized MaxEnt model, we selected 82 valid global distribution points of S. apetala and 13 environmental factors to predict its potential suitable distribution areas under the mid-Holocene, the present, and two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The results showed that the optimal parameter combination of the MaxEnt was as follows: regularization multiplier RM=0.3, feature combination FC=L + Q (linear + quadratic), and the model accuracy was significantly improved (average AUC > 0.99). The key environmental factors affecting its distribution were mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean diurnal temperature range, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), annual precipitation, and elevation. The ranges conducive to the survival of S. apetala were 27.48-33.15 ℃ for the mean temperature of the wettest quarter, 5.54-9.26 ℃ for the mean diurnal temperature range, less than 85.52 for precipitation seasonality, 1530-2849 mm for annual precipitation, and less than 29.22 m for elevation. The global potential suitable distribution areas of S. apetala show a continuous expansion trend from the mid-Holocene to the future. Under the trend of global warming, the centroid of its suitable distribution areas shows a continuous migration to the southwest. In China, the highly suitable areas for S. apetala are distributed in a continuous belt along the southeast coast (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, southern Fujian, and southwestern Taiwan). In the later stage of the high-forcing scenario (SSP585 (2061-2080)), the area of highly suitable distribution areas will increase to 15.10×10⁴ km², which is 4.3 times the current area of highly suitable distribution areas. The significant expansion of the potential suitable distribution areas of S. apetala will pose a threat to mangrove ecosystems in China. However, its invasion is restricted by multiple factors. Our prediction should be regarded as an early warning signal of invasion risk. When implementing control measures, it is recommended to adhere to the principle of “prevention first and comprehensive management” and establish a complete chain management system of “monitoring-assessment-control-restoration”, taking into account local conditions and implementing zone-specific policies.

Key words: mangrove plant, MaxEnt model, climate change, environmental suitability, risk analysis