关键词: 色木槭, 静态生命表, 数量动态分析, 生存函数, 时间序列预测

Abstract: Acer mono is a major companion tree species in the broad-leaved Korean pine forest located on the north slope of Changbai Mountain. To establish a scientific foundation for the conservation of A. mono and the rehabilitation of broad-leaved Korean pine forests, we examined the population structure and dynamics of A. mono through field surveys. We used various analytical tools, such as static life table, survival curve, mortality curve, vanishing rate curve, quantitative dynamic index, four survival functions, and a time series prediction model. The results showed that the population exhibited a comprehensive structure, with a notable proportion (78.98%) belonging to the Ⅰ-Ⅲ age groups, signifying robust growth potential. The population dynamics indices showed V_pi>V′_pi>0, indicating that the A. mono population was growth-oriented. Nonetheless, the survival curve closely resembled the Deevey-Ⅲ type, signifying a substantial loss of young individuals and underscoring the juvenile phase as a critical bottleneck period for the self-development of the A. mono population. Moreover, results of the survival functions showed that the A. mono population experienced a growth trend from the Ⅰ to Ⅵ age classes, maintained relative stability at the Ⅶ age class, and subsequently entered a recession phase. Results of the time series prediction analysis showed that the abundance of each age class would increase steadily over the next 2-10 age classes. Our results indicate the robust resilience and stable age structure of the A. mono population in the broad-leaved Korean pine forest, suggesting a promising outlook for future population development.

Key words: Acer mono, static life table, quantitative dynamic analysis, survival function, time-sequence model