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生态学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 2563-2574.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202108.023

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

薄片青冈潜在适生区及气候变化对其分布的影响

郭恺琦1,2,姜小龙1,徐刚标1*   

  1. 1中南林业科技大学林木遗传育种实验室, 长沙 410004; 2中国科学院上海辰山植物科学研究中心/上海辰山植物园, 上海 201602)
  • 出版日期:2021-08-10 发布日期:2021-08-18

Potential suitable distribution area of Quercus lamellosa and the influence of climate change.

GUO Kai-qi1,2, JIANG Xiao-long1, XU Gang-biao1*   

  1. (1The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China, 2Shanghai Chenshan Plant Science Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences / Shanghai Chenshan Botanical Garden, Shanghai 201602, China).
  • Online:2021-08-10 Published:2021-08-18

摘要: 气候快速变化会影响森林的分布和群落组成。了解森林优势种的适宜分布范围及气候变化对其分布的影响,是进行森林资源保护和利用的基础。本研究基于物种分布模型,分析特有分布于东喜马拉雅的半常绿阔叶林重要组成树种——薄片青冈(Quercus lamellosa Sm.)的分布动态。收集了54个薄片青冈现实分布点及8个与温度和降水有关的环境变量。采用5种物种分布模型(最大熵模型、人工神经网络、广义线性模型、广义加性模型和随机森林)构建组合模型模拟薄片青冈过去(末次盛冰期)、当前及未来(2041—2060、2081—2100)的潜在适宜分布区。使用R语言和ArcGIS计算物种分布面积和质心随时间的变化。结果表明:5种模型中,随机森林模拟效果最好,广义加性模型评分最低;组合模型的真实技巧统计值(TSS)和受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.987和0.999,说明模拟结果较好;年均温和温度季节性为影响薄片青冈潜在分布的主导环境因子;当前薄片青冈主要分布于东喜马拉雅横断山脉区域;薄片青冈当前时期分布面积比末次盛冰期时少了约1/3;随着未来气候变化,薄片青冈适生区面积进一步减少;薄片青冈适生区的质心随着气候变暖而向北迁移,迁移速度与变暖程度呈正相关。本研究整合多模型的分析结果,获得了可靠的薄片青冈潜在分布范围;同时,通过阐述薄片青冈适生区的分布动态,为气候变化背景下半常绿阔叶林生态稳定的维护以及生物多样性保护提供参考资料。

关键词: 薄片青冈, biomod2, 组合模型, 适生区, 质心

Abstract: The distribution and community composition of forest could be affected by rapid climate change. Understanding the suitable distribution range of dominant species in forest and the influence of climate change is the basis of forest resource protection and utilization. We used species distribution model to analyze the distribution dynamics of Quercus lamellosa Sm., an important tree species in semi-evergreen broad-leaved forest with endemic distribution in the Eastern Himalayas. A total of 54 distribution points of Q. lamellosa and eight environmental variables related to temperature and precipitation were collected. To simulate the potential distribution areas of Q. lamellosa in the past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM), present, and future (2041-2060, 2081-2100), an ensemble model was developed using five species distribution models (Maximum Entropy Model, Artificial Neural Network, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Models, and Random Forest). The R and ArcGIS were used to estimate the change of the distribution area and centroid over time. The results showed that among those five models, the Random Forest performed the best and the score of Generalized Additive Models was the lowest. The true skill statistics (TSS) and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.987 and 0.999, respectively, showing good simulation. Dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution ofQ. lamellosa were mean annual temperature and temperature seasonality. Currently, Q. lamellosais mainly distributed in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains. The current distribution area of Q. lamellosais one third less than that in LGM period, and would further decrease with future climate change. The centroid of theQ. lamellosasuitable area migrated northward with climate warming, and the migration speed was positively correlated with the extent of climate change. The potential distribution range of Q. lamellosais more reliable, as it was obtained by integrating analysis results of multiple models in this study. By demonstrating the distribution dynamics of Q. lamellosasuitable area, our results would provide reference for the maintenance of ecological stability and biodiversity conservation of semi-evergreen broad-leaved forest under the background of climate change.

Key words: Quercus lamellosa, biomod2, ensemble model, suitable area, centroid.