关键词: 香蕉假茎象甲, 生命表, 自然种群, 排除作用控制指数

Abstract: By using the 2004-2008 tropical cyclone disasters data and social-economic information of the counties in Zhejiang Province, as well as the indices values with good regional contrast of relative affected population, relative disaster area, collapsed houses, and relative direct economic loss, which were built by revised conversion function, this paper established a disaster assessment model about the relative loss value of the indices and the hazard factors including process rainfall, rainstorm days, heary rain storm days, maximum daily rainfall, extreme and maximum wind speed (≥8 m·s^-1), and days of extreme and maximum wind speed by the method of polynomial fitting, and made a meticulous disaster grade classification of tropical cyclone via grey clustering and expert weighting. On these bases, the disaster assessment and grade dividing were given on the ‘Morakot’ tropical cyclone affected Zhejiang Province in 2009. The calculated indices values of relative affected population, relative disaster area, collapsed houses, and relative direct economic loss were approached to the actual indices values, with the correlation coefficients being 0.70, 0.63, 0.75, and 0.54, respectively, suggesting that the established assessment model could basically reflect the damage grade distribution caused by the hazard factors. The comperhensive rusults of ‘Morakot’ disaster assessment  accurately reflected the spatial distribution characteristics of different counties in the Province during the ‘Morakot’ event, but, affected by other factors (pregnancy disaster environment, vulnerability, and resilience, etc.), the fitted disaster was overestimated when the existing disaster was small, and underestimated when the existing disaster was great.

Key words: Odoiporus longicollis Oliver, Life table, Natural population, EIPC