关键词: 硝酸镧, ICPMS, 微核率, DNA断裂, 遗传毒理

Abstract: Ecosystem is a self-adaptive, complex system with multi-stable state, and its fate is hardly to be predicted precisely because of the high uncertainties. In recent years, scenario analysis has being employed to better understand the mechanism of the multistable state of ecosystem to avoid the limitations of traditional prediction and modeling methods. Scenario analysis is a systemic method for the creative thinking about the ecosystem’s possible complex and uncertain futures. Its central idea is to consider a variety of possible futures that include many important uncertainties rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome. Through positing several informed, plausible, and imagined alternative future environments, the purpose of scenario analysis is to change current mental models, enhance the participation of stakeholders, and improve decision-making. This paper reviewed the concept and process of scenario analysis, clarified the differences between scenario analysis and traditional methods, and, based on several successful cases, summarized the development of the methodology of scenario analysis and its application in ecosystem research.

Key words: La(NO3)3, ICP-MS, Micronucleus rate, DNA cleavage, Genetic toxicity