入侵害虫葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的潜在适生区预测

生态学杂志

入侵害虫葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的潜在适生区预测

张颖^1，2,章超斌²,郝建华^1**,顾海涛^1

（¹常熟理工学院生物与食品工程学院, 江苏常熟 215500; ^2南京大学生命科学学院, 南京 210023）

出版日期:2015-07-10 发布日期:2015-07-10

Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of invasive alien pest, Viteus vitifoliae Fitch in China.

ZHANG Ying^1，2, ZHANG Chao-bin², HAO Jian-hua^1**, GU Hai-tao¹

(¹School of Biology and Food Engineering, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu 215500, Jiangsu, China; ²School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Online:2015-07-10 Published:2015-07-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 葡萄根瘤蚜（Viteus vitifoliae Fitch）是源自北美的外来入侵害虫，对我国葡萄产业具有严重威胁。本研究应用最大熵（MaxEnt）生态位模型和地理信息系统（GIS），预测了葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在适生区，采用ROC曲线分析法验证了预测结果，对其在我国各葡萄主产省份的适生区面积比例进行了统计，并对影响葡萄根瘤蚜分布的各种环境因子进行了分析。结果表明：葡萄根瘤蚜在我国有广泛的潜在分布区，适生度较高的地区主要集中于华东沿海、黄土高原和华中地区，经纬范围大致为100°E—124°E，24°N—43°N；该种在除新疆之外的主要葡萄生产省份均具有较高的适生性，潜在的适生区远大于目前的分布范围，仍有巨大的入侵潜力和风险；葡萄根瘤蚜入侵区分布主要受温度（尤其是低温）的影响，水分和土壤质地属性对葡萄根瘤蚜分布的限制作用明显不及温度条件；在未来气候变暖的趋势下，葡萄根瘤蚜的适生范围有可能向北、向高海拔地区偏移。

关键词: 居民感知, 世界遗产地, 生态移民, 历时性分析, 武陵源风景名胜区

Abstract: Viteus vitifoliae Fitch, an invasive alien pest that originated from North America, can seriously threaten grape production in China. In this paper, the MaxEnt ecological niche model and GIS were used to analyze environmental variables that affect the distribution of this pest. Its potential distribution range and area in China were predicted. The predicted results were verified by the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. The results suggested that V. vitifoliae has a wide potential distribution range in China. The eastern coastal region, Loess Plateau, and central areas of China are its primary suitable distribution regions, roughly from 100°E to 124°E, and from 24°N to 43°N. The potential invasive risk of V. vitifoliae is high in all major grape production provinces except Xinjiang. The potential distribution range of V. vitifoliae is far larger than its present distribution. There is great invasive expansion potential along with increased hazard to grape production. Air temperature, especially low temperature, is the key environmental variable affecting the potential distribution of V. vitifoliae, while the effects of moisture and soil texture are weaker than that of temperature. In reference to future global warming, the suitable distribution regions will likely shift from southern to northern China, and from lowaltitude to highaltitude areas.

Key words: ecological relocation, world heritage site, diachronic study, residents&rsquo, perceptions, Wulingyuan Scenic Area.

张颖1，2,章超斌2,郝建华1**,顾海涛1. 入侵害虫葡萄根瘤蚜在中国的潜在适生区预测[J]. 生态学杂志.

ZHANG Ying1，2, ZHANG Chao-bin2, HAO Jian-hua1**, GU Hai-tao1. Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of invasive alien pest, Viteus vitifoliae Fitch in China.[J]. cje.