关键词: 霜冻害气象指数, 空间分析模型, 茶树种植分布, 精准预报, 安吉县

Abstract: An accurate prediction of meteorological index relevant to frost damage for Anji white tea is of great significance to enhance the disaster precaution ability during tea production. Based on the meteorological data from 24 automatic weather stations in Anji County, a spatial analysis model of daily minimum temperature was established by combining regression analysis with residual interpolation method. A prediction method targeting at meteorological index relevant to frost damage for Anji white tea was developed by using GIS technology, taking advantage of the objective products of medium-range weather forecast, as well as DEM elevation data and the planting zone information extracted from GF-2 satellite monitoring. The results showed the simulation effect of spatial analysis model was good, with an absolute error value of daily minimum temperature of 0.5 ℃ across the county. The effectiveness of meteorological index forecast of frost damage reached 15 days and the spatial resolution was 30 m. Based on the meteorological index of frost damage of Anji white tea, 80.64% of tea gardens in Anji County were estimated to have frost damage on March 23, 2021. The affected area at Level 1 (mild) and 2 (moderate) damage was 9291.96 and 62.7 hm², accounting for 80.10% and 0.54% of the county’s total area of tea plantation, respectively. The predictions were generally consistent with the field investigation, suggesting that the method developed here would provide technical supports to fine meteorological service of tea production.

Key words: meteorological index relevant to frost damage, spatial analysis model, tea planting zone, accurate prediction, Anji County.