Abstract: To provide a basis for improving the prediction accuracy of surface ground fuel moisture content, we monitored the dynamics of water content of the surface ground fuel and the meteorological factors in Larix gmelinii-Betula platyphylla mixed forests in both shady slope and sunny slope in Nanwenghe National Natural Reserve of Daxing’an Mountains with different fire prevention periods. The direct estimation method based on equilibrium moisture content and timelag was used to analyze the effects of different fire prevention periods and slope aspects on the accuracy of the prediction model for estimating surface ground fuel moisture content. The results showed that water content of ground fuel differed with fire prevention periods and slope aspects, being greater in autumn than in spring and greater in the sunny slope than in the shady slope. In the predicted models of surface ground fuel moisture content, prediction accuracy for autumn fire prevention period was better than that for spring fire prevention period, and that for the sunny slope was better than for the shady slope. The effects of slope aspects and fire prevention periods on water content of surface ground fuel should be taken into account to establish different prediction models in forest fire risk prediction, which will help improve the accuracy of fire risk prediction.

Key words: ecological environment, Fujian., coupling-coordination, new-type urbanization