Abstract: Climate change influences plant geographic distribution. Studies on the influence of climate change on species geographic distribution is of great significance for protection and proper utilization of species. In this study, we adjusted multi-feature combination and magnification parameters through ENMeval packet to optimize MaxEnt model. With 221 effective distribution data of Corylus mandshurica and 16 environmental factors, we simulated and predicted its potential distribution areas under current and future climate (2050s and 2070s), and analyzed dominant environmental factors affecting its geographic distribution. The results showed that when feature combination was LQPH and regularization multiplier was 1.5, both the complexity and overfitting of the model were low and prediction accuracy was good. Under the present climate scenario, suitable distribution zones of C. mandshurica were located in Changbai Mountain, Taihang Mountain, Qin-ba Mountainous Area, and south of Gansu Province. Under future climate scenario, the suitable zones ofC. mandshurica, such as central and northern Shaanxi, southwest China and southern Gansu, will progressively decline, whereas more suitable zones will move to eastern Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. The center of suitable zones tended to move towards northeast. Dominant environmental factors affecting the geographic distribution of C. mandshurica wereannual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, elevation and annual mean temperature, with a cumulative contribution rate of 78.8%, and their suitable condition ranges were 430-970 mm, -21 to 3 ℃, 40-2800 m and 0.8-13 ℃, respectively.

Key words: Corylus mandshurica, MaxEnt model, climate change, potential distribution area, dominant environmental factor.