气候变化背景下湖北川金丝猴种群生存力分析

生态学杂志

气候变化背景下湖北川金丝猴种群生存力分析

张宇¹,李佳²,薛亚东¹,李丽³,李迪强^1*

(¹中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所/国家林业和草原局生物多样性重点实验室，北京 100091；²中国林业科学研究院荒漠化研究所，北京 100091； ³云南财经大学野生动植物管理与生态系统健康研究中心/云南省高校灾害风险管理重点实验室，昆明 650221)

出版日期:2018-11-10 发布日期:2018-11-10

Population viability analysis of Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey in context of climate change in Hubei Province, China.

ZHANG Yu¹, LI Jia², XUE Ya-dong¹, LI Li³, LI Di-qiang^1*

(¹Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, and Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, China; ²Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China; ³Wildlife Management and Ecosystem Health Center, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics and Key Laboratory of Disaster Risk Management of Yunnan Provincial Universities, Kunming 650221, China).

Online:2018-11-10 Published:2018-11-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化预计将改变野生动物的潜在适宜生境面积、分布与格局，从而加剧濒危物种的灭绝风险。湖北川金丝猴种群（Rhinopithecus roxellana）相对较低的遗传多样性、孤立的遗传状态和较小的种群数量，使得该种群面对环境变化具有更高的脆弱性。研究该种群在气候变化下的生境变化及种群动态，可为今后制定气候变化下的适应性对策提供参考。本文基于湖北川金丝猴分布点、生物气候变量及环境变量，建立川金丝猴物种分布模型，评估气候变化对川金丝猴未来（2050s）生境及环境容纳量的影响；结合川金丝猴种群参数，利用漩涡模型预测100年内，川金丝猴受到气候变化及极端天气灾害影响下的种群生存力状况。结果显示，在气候变化下，2050s川金丝猴适宜生境相比当前减少64.45%，大龙潭亚群、金猴岭亚群和千家坪亚群的环境容纳量相比当前分别下降93.48%、72.86%和13.96%；当前情景下，湖北川金丝猴在100年内种群数量能够保持逐渐增长，说明该种群是一个具有一定繁殖力的种群；极端天气灾害和气候变化均能造成湖北川金丝猴种群数量不同程度下降，二者共同作用时影响最大；不同亚群对极端天气灾害和气候变化的敏感性不同。因此，保护适宜生境、保证生境间连通性及提供极端天气灾害的干预保护是湖北川金丝猴种群保护的重要途径。

关键词: 碳库, 长期耕作, 侵蚀-沉积区, 碳积累速率, 稳定机制, Stewart物理-化学联合分组

Abstract: Climate change is anticipated to alter habitat area, distribution and configuration of wildlife, exacerbating the extinction risk for endangered species. Sichuan golden snubnosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province is vulnerable to environmental changebecause it is genetically distinct and has a small population size with low genetic diversity. Simulations of habitat shifts and population dynamics under climate change can assist in recommending effective adaptive strategies for its conservation. Here, we built a species distribution model based on monkey occurrences associated with bioclimatic and environmental variables. We assessed the extent to which climate change would impact monkey habitat distribution and carrying capacity from the current to the 2050s. Using Vortex model combined with population parameters, we predicted the monkey population’s viability in the period of 100 years in existence of extreme weather disaster and climate change. Our results showed a potential habitat loss of 64.45% due to climate change by the 2050s, resulting in a decrease in the carrying capacity of 93.48%, 72.86% and 13.96% for the Dalongtan, Jinhoulin and Qianjiaping subpopulations, respectively. Without the influence of climate change, the Sichuan golden snubnosed monkey population size in Hubei Province would gradually increase, indicating that the population has certain fecundity. The greatest impact on reduction in population size occurs when extreme weather disasters and climate change happen simultaneously. However, sensitivity to extreme weather disaster and climate change varied among different subpopulations. The protection of current suitable habitat and connectivity between habitats as well as the provision of interventional protection for extreme weather disasters are fundamental ways to conserve the species.

Key words: long-term tillage, erosion-deposition area, carbon pool, stabilization mechanism, Stewart physical-chemical fractionation, carbon accumulation rate

张宇,李佳,薛亚东,李丽,李迪强. 气候变化背景下湖北川金丝猴种群生存力分析[J]. 生态学杂志.

ZHANG Yu, LI Jia, XUE Ya-dong, LI Li, LI Di-qiang. Population viability analysis of Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey in context of climate change in Hubei Province, China.[J]. cje.

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