• 研究报告 •

### 华南地区温度变化及其对登革热传播时间的影响

1. (1广东省气候中心， 广州 510080； 2广州市气候与农业气象中心， 广州 511430)
• 出版日期:2015-11-10 发布日期:2015-11-10

### Change in temperature in South China and its impact on the potential epidemic duration of dengue fever.

DU Yao-dong1**, WU Xiao-xuan2, WANG Hua1

1. (1Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080, China; 2Climate & Agricultural Meteorological Center of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 511430, China）
• Online:2015-11-10 Published:2015-11-10

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature data of 110 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012, and future projection by the RegCM4 regional climate model under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios, change in temperature in South China and its impact on the potential transmission duration of dengue fever were studied by using the methods of RossMacdonald transmission dynamical model of diseases, linear regression, accumulative anomaly and ArcGIS. The results showed that 21 ℃ could be used as the minimum temperature suitable for dengue fever transmission. The annual mean air temperature had increased significantly by 0.14 ℃ per decade during the past 52 years, and an abrupt change in annual mean air temperature happened in 1997. Compared to the 30year average in the period of 1981-2010, annual mean temperatures in South China in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s will likely increase by 0.8, 1.3 and 1.7 ℃ under RCP4.5 scenario, and 0.9, 1.7 and 2.9 ℃ under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The annual mean days suitable for dengue fever transmission and area of year-round epidemic zone increased by 10 days and 408 km2 during the period of 1997-2012 compared to those during the period of 1961-1996. Compared to the average in the period of 1997-2012, the annual mean days suitable for dengue fever transmission in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s will likely increase by 10, 15 and 20 days under RCP4.5 scenario, and 15, 25 and 40 days under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, and the areas of year-round epidemic zone will likely correspondingly increase by 3962, 5436 and 8260 km2 under RCP4.5 scenario, and 4536, 8780 and 20680 km2 under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.