• 研究报告 •

近28年金昌市土地利用动态变化及模拟预测

1. （西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院， 兰州 730070）
• 出版日期:2015-04-10 发布日期:2015-04-10

Land-use dynamic change  of Jinchang City in the last 28 years and simulation prediction.

LI Li, LIU Pu-xing**, YAO Yu-long

1. (College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China)
• Online:2015-04-10 Published:2015-04-10

Abstract:

Based on the fourperiod remote sensing images of Landsat TM/ETM+ and Landsat-8 TIRS in 1987, 1999, 2006 and 2014, combined with RS and GIS technology, the landuse vector data were obtained. Additionally, the CAMarkov model was employed to simulate the spatial pattern and development tendency of the land use in Jinchang City with IDRISI Selva 17.0 software. The results showed that the builtup land, forest land and cropland presented an increasing trend over the past 28 years in the study area. The built-up land was increased prominently by 96.98%, and mainly located in towns, industrymining sites and the areas neighboring traffic lines, which were influenced intensively by human activities. However, the unused land, grassland and waterbody showed a decreasing trend, and the unused land and grassland decreased by 5.13% and 4.32%, respectively. The most significant conversions were found from the unused land to built-up land, grassland to unused land, and waterbody to unused land. In the next 16 years, the landuse change in Jinchang would roughly keep its previous trends, but the change amplitude would increase. The area of built-up land, forest land, cropland and waterbody would increase, while that of the unused land would decrease and would be highly developed. The area of grassland would decrease and the degradation would be obvious. Therefore, it is particularly important to protect the grassland for ecological environment and windbreak and sand fixation.