• 研究报告 •

### 江苏省小麦赤霉病综合影响指数构建及时空变化特征

1. 1江苏省气象局， 南京 210008；2南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044； 3南通市通州区植物保护指导站， 江苏通州 226301；4建湖县上冈农作物病虫预测预报站， 江苏建湖 224731；5阜宁县东沟农作物病虫测报站， 江苏阜宁 224426）
• 出版日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2019-06-10

### Construction of the comprehensive impact index for wheat scab and its spatiotemporal variations in Jiangsu Province.

XU Min1, GAO Ping1*, XU Jing-wei2, WU Hong-yan1, YI Hong-juan3, WU Ding-bang4, XU Dong-xiang5

1. (1Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China; 2Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CICFEMD), Nanjing University of Information Sciences & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3Tongzhou District Plant Protection Guidance Station, Tongzhou 226301, Jiangsu, China; 4Shanggang Crop Pest and Diseases Forecasting Station, Jianhu 224731, Jiangsu, China; 5Donggou Crop Pests and Diseases Monitoring Station, Funing 224426, Jiangsu, China).
• Online:2019-06-10 Published:2019-06-10

Abstract: Based on the data of the spike rate of wheat scab, winter wheat phenology, and the daily weather data observed in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, as well as in Tongzhou District (Nantong City) and Jianhu and Funing counties (Yancheng City), a comprehensive impact index and classification indicators for wheat scab were established by statistical methods, including grey correlation, synthetic analysis, census and percentile analysis. The proposed index and indicators were calibrated and validated using empirical data. Then, they were used to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of wheat scab in Jiangsu Province. Cumulative rainy days, average relative humidity, and average temperature were key meteorological factors affecting wheat scab. Their weights were 0.348, 0.340, and 0.312, respectively. The proposed comprehensive impact index on the basis of these meteorological variables could indicate the situation of wheat scab occurrence in Jiangsu. The classification indicators according to the comprehensive impact index could retrieve the spatiotemporal variations of wheat scab. In recent 16 years from 2002 to 2017, the occurrence of wheat scab in Jiangsu decreased from south to north. However, areas with the most serious wheat scab shifted. The occurrence probability of serious wheat scab in the eastern coastal areas between the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers (mainly in Yancheng City) was significantly higher than that in other areas. Since 2010, serious wheat scab broke out more frequently in Jiangsu, probably due to climate warming. Our results can be used for the prediction and impact assessment of wheat scab, providing guidance for the effective prevention and control of the disease.