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生态学杂志 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 2815-2820.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

南京市高温热浪特征及其对人体健康的影响

许遐祯1,郑有飞2**,尹继福2,3,吴荣军2,4   

  1. 1江苏省气候中心, 南京 210008;2江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室, 南京 210044; 3南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 南京 210044; 4南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院, 南京 210044
  • 出版日期:2011-12-08 发布日期:2011-12-08

Characteristics of high temperature and heat wave in Nanjing City and their impacts on human health. 

XU Xia-zhen1, ZHENG You-fei2**, YIN Ji-fu2.3, WU Rong-jun2,4   

  1. 1 Jiangsu Climate Centre, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing 210044, China; 3 College of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;4 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Online:2011-12-08 Published:2011-12-08

摘要: 利用1951—2009年(6—9月)气象资料、2005—2008年(6—9月)南京市逐日死亡人数、2005—2007年(6—9月)中暑相关的逐时急诊人数,采用描述性研究、回归分析等流行病学统计方法,研究南京市高温热浪特征及其对人体健康的影响。结果表明:南京是各种级别高温和热浪频发的城市,近60年来,南京市每年平均高温日数14.5 d,危害高温日数1.1 d,高温热浪1.9次,强高温热浪0.8次;高温热浪过程造成的人群超额死亡率在20%以上,其中女性超额死亡率稍大于男性,对冠心病和脑血管病患者的伤害较大,而且不存在滞后性;由于人体的适应性,发生在夏季早期的高温热浪比发生在季节中、末阶段的高温热浪危害大,但热浪持续的时间对超额死亡率的影响较小;另外,由于城市居民工作需要和出行时间的选择,导致夏季逐时高温对人体危害呈双峰型分布,2个峰值分别出现在9:00—11:00和19:00—21:00;高温热浪对人体的危害与年龄约呈三次函数关系,对0~5岁的婴幼儿和60~80岁的高龄人群危害较大。这些结果可为人体健康风险管理提供参考。

Abstract: By using the statistic methods in epidemiology, this paper analyzed the characteristics of high temperature and heat wave in Nanjing City and their impacts on local human health, based on the meteorological data from June to September, 1951-2009, the daily death toll from June to September, 2005-2008, and the hourly emergency treatment amount of heatstroke symptom from June to September, 2005-2007. Nanjing is a city with frequent occurrence of various levels high temperature and heat wave. In past 60 years, the average yearly high temperature days and harming high temperature days were 14.5 d and 1.1 d, and the average yearly heat wave and strong heat wave weather process occurred 1.9 times and 0.8 times, respectively. When heat wave happened, the excess mortality rate was higher than 20%, and this mortality rate was slightly higher for females than for males. Heat wave had greater damage on the sufferers of coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, with no lag effect. Due to the human body’s adaptation, the harm of heat wave was more serious in early summer than in mid and late summer, but the duration of the heat wave had little impact on the excess mortality rate. Because of the habitants’ job need and outside time period selection, the damage of hourly high temperature in summer on human body had double peaks, appearing from 9:00 to 11:00 and from 19:00 to 21:00. The harm of high temperature and heat wave on human body presented a cubic function with age, being larger for the people aged 0-5 and 60-80 years. These results could be used as a reference for managing human health risk.