基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价

生态学杂志

基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价

李德^1*,杨霏云²,孙义¹,王琳佳³,吴觅³

（¹安徽省宿州市气象局，安徽宿州 234000； ² 中国气象局气象干部培训中心，北京 100081； ^3安徽省灵璧县气象局，安徽灵璧 234200）

出版日期:2016-01-10 发布日期:2016-01-10

Meteorological suitability evaluation based on cloud model for spraying pesticide/fertilizer in wheat fields of Huaibei Plain.

LI De^1*, YANG Fei-yun², SUN Yi¹, WANG Lin-jia³, WU Mi^3

(¹ Suzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui, Suzhou 234000, Anhui, China; ²China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081, China;³ Lingbi Meteorological Office of Anhui, Lingbi 234200, Anhui, China)

Online:2016-01-10 Published:2016-01-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 麦田喷药或喷肥气象适宜度评价对农事活动科学实施具有重要意义。安徽省淮北平原影响麦田喷药（肥）活动实施的气象因素主要是降水、气温、风速和土壤湿度条件。依据气象和土壤条件对麦田喷药（肥）活动影响的经验指标，基于云模型理论对影响喷药（肥）活动的气象条件分别建立4个云模型，采用层次分析法（AHP），对4个影响因素的隶属度进行综合，得到影响麦田喷药（肥）的综合气象适宜度，并由云模型理论建立其“适宜、较适宜、较不适宜、不适宜”的4个等级的评价云模型，用于评价喷药（肥）活动的气象适宜度等级。检验表明：评价模型与实际相符，可用于喷药（肥）活动的气象适宜度评价；在降水、风速等气象要素预报的基础上，该模型可以用于喷药（肥）活动气象适宜度的等级预报。

关键词: Bartels统计量, 敏感性分析, 变异度, 澜沧江, Hurst系数

Abstract: Meteorological suitability evaluation on spraying pesticide/fertilizer in wheat fields is of great significance for scientific agricultural operations. In the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province, the main meteorological factors affecting pesticide/fertilizerspraying operations in wheat fields are precipitation, air temperature, wind velocity and soil moisture. According to the experience indexes regarding the influences of climate and soil conditions on spraying operation, we established four cloud models based on the theory of cloud model. By adopting the method of AHP, we also integrated the memberships of four factors, obtaining the comprehensive meteorological suitability that affects pesticide/fertilizerspraying operation. Moreover, to evaluate relative meteorological suitability, an evaluation cloud model including four grades―suitable, fairly suitable, slightly unsuitable and unsuitable―was established. The test results are in conformity with actual situation, indicating that the evaluation model can be applied in meteorological suitability evaluation of spraying operations. Based on the forecast of precipitation, wind velocity and other meteorological factors, the evaluation model can be used for grade forecast of meteorological suitability in pesticide/fertilizerspraying operations.

Key words: variability, sensitivity analysis, Bartels statistics, Hurst coefficient, Lancang River.

李德1*,杨霏云2,孙义1,王琳佳3,吴觅. 基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价[J]. 生态学杂志.

LI De1*, YANG Fei-yun2, SUN Yi1, WANG Lin-jia3, WU Mi3. Meteorological suitability evaluation based on cloud model for spraying pesticide/fertilizer in wheat fields of Huaibei Plain.[J]. cje.

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