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近50年华北地区冬小麦低温灾害的时空演变特征

钱永兰1**,王建林1,郑昌玲1,杨霏云2,宋艳玲3,宋迎波1   

  1. (1国家气象中心, 北京 100081; 2中国气象局气象干部培训学院, 北京 100081; 3国家气候中心, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2014-12-10 发布日期:2014-12-10

Spatial-temporal change of low temperature disaster of winter wheat in North China in last 50 years

QIAN Yong-lan1**, WANG Jian-lin1, ZHENG Chang-ling1, YANG Fei-yun2, SONG Yan-ling3, SONG Ying-bo1   

  1. (1National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China; 2China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081, China; 3National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2014-12-10 Published:2014-12-10

摘要:

低温灾害是华北地区冬小麦的主要灾害之一,全生育期内均可发生。本文基于气象站逐日最低气温和华北各地冬小麦不同发育阶段低温灾害的界限温度,对华北地区近50 a冬小麦低温灾害进行定量反演,分析其演变特征。结果表明:近50 a华北地区冬小麦生长季内低温灾害的频次和强度均呈现随年代递减的总体趋势,全生育期的低温灾害天数由20世纪60年代的平均50 d以上降至21世纪前10年的不足40 d,低温灾害指数则由0.6以上普遍降至0.4以下;其时空演变特征表现为,华北东部变速快于西部,近20 a变速快于前30 a;在冬小麦不同发育阶段,低温灾害频次的变化趋势也存在明显差异,在冬小麦越冬和返青阶段低温灾害的发生频次呈现明显随年代递减趋势,而冬小麦分蘖、拔节、抽穗等发育阶段低温灾害的发生频次则一直维持较高水平;近50 a华北地区冬小麦发生低温灾害的日最低气温平均上升了1~2 ℃,但同期发生低温灾害的极端值则无明显年代际变化。
 

关键词: 半干旱区, 养分释放, 干湿交替, 凋落物分解, 科尔沁沙地

Abstract: Low temperature disaster is one of the major disasters of winter wheat in North China, which could occur at its every growth stage. In this paper, low temperature disaster of winter wheat was identified based on daily minimum air temperature and injury threshold at different growth stages of winter wheat in North China in last 50 years, then the spatialtemporal change characteristics of the disaster were analyzed. The results showed that, in last 50 years, both the severity and frequency of the low temperature disaster of winter wheat in North China decreased along with decadalscale variation. The severity index of the disaster decreased from more than 0.6 in the 1960s to less than 0.4 in the 2000s, and the frequency of the disaster reduced from more than 50 days in the 1960s to less than 40 days in the 2000s. As to spatialtemporal change pattern of the disaster in North China, both the severity and frequency in the eastern region decreased faster than in the western region, and more rapidly in recent 20 years than in the former 30 years. At the different growth stages of winter wheat, the change tendency of the disaster frequency was obviously different. At the overwintering stage and turninggreen stage, the frequency of low temperature disaster was reduced rapidly at decadal scale, but it occurred unchangeably at high levels at the stages of tillering, jointing and head sprouting. The mean of daily minimum air temperatures when winter wheat suffered the low temperature disaster rose about 1-2 ℃ during the last 50 years in North China, but there was no clear trend of decrease in the extreme value of the disaster occurring in the same growth stage.

Key words: semi-arid region, nutrient release, drying-rewetting, litter decomposition, Horqin Sandy Land