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• 方法与技术 • 上一篇    

烤烟低温冷害指数构建及其变化特征

李蒙,朱勇**,张明达,黄玮   

  1. (云南省气候中心, 昆明 650034)
  • 出版日期:2013-06-10 发布日期:2013-06-10

Chilling damage index of flue-cured tobacco: Its establishment and variation characteristics.

LI Meng, ZHU Yong**, ZHANG Ming-da, HUANG Wei   

  1. (Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, China)
  • Online:2013-06-10 Published:2013-06-10

摘要:

使用1961—2009年云南烤烟种植区62个气象代表站的逐日平均气温和最低气温,基于低温指标和权重指数构建了烤烟低温冷害指数模型,采用线性趋势及M-K突变检测方法,分析了低温冷害指数的变化特征。结果表明:1961—2009年春、夏、秋烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值逐年变化均呈减弱趋势,春季减弱最为显著,夏秋减弱趋势不及春季且不显著;春、夏烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值在20世纪60年代和70年代最高,在2001—2009年最低,秋季则为60年代最高,70年代最低;各季节中低温冷害指数呈减弱趋势及变化显著的站点春、夏季最多,秋季最少;M-K检测表明,春季低温冷害指数全省逐年平均值变化趋势显著,并在1997年出现突变点,而夏季和秋初变化均不显著,春季全省发生显著突变的站点达30%,但夏秋季不到10%,各站点出现突变的时间以20世纪80年代及90年代末期为主。
 

关键词: 物种多样性, 群落结构, 竞争, 南方红豆杉, 更新

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2009 daily mean and minimum temperature data from 62 meteorological stations in the fluecured tobacco planting areas of Yunnan Province, Southwest China, and by using lowtemperature indicators and weighted index, the chilling damage index model for the flue-cured tobacco was constructed, and the variation characteristics of the chilling damage index were analyzed by the methods of linear tendency and MannKendall test. In 1961-2009, the yearly variation of the provincial average chilling damage index of the flue-cured tobacco in spring, summer, and autumn presently a decreasing trend, being most obviously in spring, and with a similarity in summer and autumn. The provincial average chilling damage index of the flue-cured tobacco in spring and summer reached the maximum in the 1960s and 1970s and the minimum in 2001-2009, while that in autumn reached the maximum in the 1960s and the minimum in the 1970s. Much more stations showed a decreasing trend in the chilling damage index, and the latter changed significantly in spring and summer but less in autumn. The Mann-Kendall test showed that the yearly variation of the provincial average chilling damage index in spring was significant, with an abrupt change in 1997, but the yearly variation in summer and early autumn was not significant. Thirty percent of the stations in the Province showed a significant abrupt change in spring, and less than 10% of the stations showed the abrupt change in summer and autumn. Most of the abrupt change in each station mainly appeared in the late 1980s and 1990s.

Key words: Taxus chinensis var. mairei, species diversity, community structure, competition., regeneration