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生态学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 887-898.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202103.025

• 技术与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

青藏高原土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟

张晓瑶1,陆林1*,虞虎2,3,张潇1,李冬花1   

  1. (1安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院, 安徽芜湖 241002; 2中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101; 3中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101)
  • 出版日期:2021-03-10 发布日期:2021-03-17

Multi-scenario simulation of the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem service value on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

ZHANG Xiao-yao1, LU Lin1*, YU Hu2,3, ZHANG Xiao1, LI Dong-hua1#br#   

  1. (1School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, Anhui, China; 2Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;3Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China).
  • Online:2021-03-10 Published:2021-03-17

摘要: 青藏高原具有突出的生态服务价值,但气候多变、环境脆弱的基底,使其易受人类活动的干扰。本文基于土地利用数据和改进当量因子法,定量分析1992—2015年青藏高原土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值时空分布影响,并结合CA-Markov模型模拟探讨自然发展和生态保护情景下土地利用与生态系统服务价值的相互关系。结果表明:1992—2015年青藏高原土地利用结构稳定,以草地为主,林地、裸地为辅,生态系统服务价值总体呈增长趋势,草地、水体和林地是青藏高原生态价值的稳定供应者;青藏高原生态系统服务价值的空间分布极不均衡,不同气候区分布具有空间异质性,冷点区集中分布在青藏高原西北部干旱气候区和东南部湿润气候区,热点区集中于中部湿润和半湿润气候区;6000 m海拔是青藏高原生态系统服务价值的趋势变化节点;生态保护情景下的土地利用变化比自然发展情景下的更加均衡,生态系统服务价值总体增加,生态环境向优发展。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 土地利用变化, 情景模拟, 青藏高原

Abstract: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has outstanding ecological service value. Due to the volatile climate and fragile environment on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, it is vulnerable to interference from human activities. Based on the land-use data and an improved equivalent factor method, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of land-use change on the spatial and temporal variations ofecosystem service values on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1992-2015. Furthermore, combined with the CA-Markov model, we explored the relationship between land use and ecosystem service value under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection. From 1992 to 2015, the land-use structure of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was stable, with grasslands being the main land use type supplemented by woodlands and bare land. The overall value of ecosystem services showed an increasing trend. Grasslands, water body, and forests were the stable suppliers of ecological value of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The spatial distribution of the ecosystem service value of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was extremely uneven, while the distribution of different climatic zones was spatially heterogeneous. Cold spots were concentrated in the arid zone of the northwestern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the humid zone in the southeast. Hot spots were concentrated in the humid and semihumid zone in the middle. The altitude of 6000 m was the threshold of ecosystem service value of the QinghaiTibet Plateau. The land-use change under the ecological protection scenario is more balanced than that under the natural development scenario. Ecosystem service value generally increases, and the ecological environment develops optimally.

Key words: ecosystem service value, land use change, scenario simulation, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.