Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop insect pests in China.
ZHANG Lei1, HUO Zhi-guo1**, WANG Li1, JIANG Yu-ying2
2012, 31(06):
1499-1507.
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Based on the 527 meteorological stations observation data as well as the diseases and pests data and planted crop areas data in China agricultural areas in 1961-2010, and by the method of correlation analysis, this paper analyzed the effects of the changes of meteorological elements on the occurrence of insect pests. Under the background of climate change, the mean annual air temperature and mean precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.27 ℃·10 a-1 and 0.24 mm·(d·10 a)-1, respectively, while the annual sunshine hours decreased at a rate of 47.40 h·10 a-1. The annual precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.14 mm·10 a-1, but had great fluctuations. There were significant positive correlations between the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area and that of mean annual air temperature and precipitation intensity. When the mean annual air temperature increased by 1 ℃, the increasing rate of insect pests’ occurrence area would be 0.648, and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.96×108 hm2·time; when the mean annual precipitation intensity increased by 1 mm·d-1, the increasing rate of insect pests’ occurrence area would be 0.713, and the occurrence area would be increased by 1.06×108 hm2·time. The rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area had a significant negative correlation with that of annual sunshine hours. When the annual sunshine hours decreased by 100 h, the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area would be increased by 040, and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.59×108hm2 ·time. Overall, the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area had little correlation with that of annual precipitation, but significant negative correlations with the rate anomaly of mean annual small precipitation, days of microprecipitation, and days of small precipitation. When the mean annual small precipitation, days of microprecipitation, and days of small precipitation decreased by 1 mm, 1 d, and 1 d, the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area would be increased by 0.014, 0.066 and 0.052, and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.02×108, 0.10×108, and 0.08×108 hm2·time, respectively.