Abstract: Identifying the type evolution, spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of supply and demand risk bundles of basin integrated ecosystem services is important for understanding ecological problems and making ecological restoration and management decisions. Following a multi-model framework including InVEST-SOM-RDA-RF, we analyzed the supply and demand status of carbon sequestration (CS), soil retention (SR), water yield (WY), leisure and recreation (LR), and habitat quality (HQ) in Xinjiang Basin from 2000 to 2020. Combined with redundancy analysis, the influencing factors of supply and demand risk of ecosystem services in different years were examined, the supply and demand bundles of ecosystem services were identified, and the influence factors of supply and demand risk bundles and its nonlinear response relationship were further excavated. The results showed that the supply and demand ratios of CS, WY, LR and HQ in Xinjiang Basin were “high in the north and south, low in the middle” from 2000 to 2020. The relationship between supply and demand was worsening. The ratios of supply to demand in SR was “low in the north and south, high in the middle”, while the relationship between supply and demand was deteriorating first and then trending. Population, slope, and night lighting were the main factors influencing the supply and demand of these five types of ecosystem services. The basin mainly included four supply and demand service bundles: CS-WY-LR-HQ supply and demand risk bundle (B1), HQ supply and demand risk bundle (B2), SR supply and demand risk bundle (B3), and supply and demand security bundle (B4). From 2000 to 2020, the B1 area expanded from 47 km² to 63 km², with the compound supply and demand risk with the cities as the core areas being intensified. The area of B3 increased first and then decreased, while the area of B2 and B4 decreased. The risk of supply and demand of soil conservation was still the main ecological risk of the region. Population, night lighting, and slope were highly sensitive and correlated with the generation and spatiotemporal distribution of supply and demand risk bundles of B1, B2, and B3, respectively. Our results can provide decision-making basis for risk management and control of supply and demand of integrated ecosystem services in the basin.

Key words: ecosystem services, matching supply and demand, supply and demand risk bundle, driving factor, Xinjiang Basin