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Chinese Journal of Ecology ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 2702-2713.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202409.029

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Assessment of biomass resources for energy use potential in China.

ZHOU Yanming1,2,3, WANG Jiaoyue1,4,5*, WANG Shiyun3, XI Fengming1,4,5, BING Longfei1,4,5, YIN Yan1,4,5, HU Qinqin1,4,5, ZHANG Lixia6   

  1. (1Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 2Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 3Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China; 4Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environment Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 5Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Neutrality, Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China; 6Liaoning Province Information Center, Shenyang 110002, China).

  • Online:2024-09-10 Published:2024-09-11

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Abstract: Biomass energy is an important renewable energy source, the effective exploitation of which is crucial to achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. Biomass resources are abundant and diverse in China. However, few studies have conducted the quantitative and comprehensive assessment of biomass resources, leading to the estimates with large uncertainty. How much biomass resources are there in China? What is the potential for biomass energy use? All of these are the focuses of attention. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive biomass energy resource accounting framework. Based on the framework, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of biomass resources in China, and used ARIMA model to simulate and predict the future biomass resources and energy exploitation potential. The results showed that the amount of biomass resources and energy utilization potential in China increased from 17.64 and 10.91 EJ in 2001 to 30.59 and 18.08 EJ in 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 3%, respectively. China’s biomass resources mainly originated from agricultural and forest wastes, and manure, accounting for 78.5% of total biomass resources. Biomass resources in the Great Southwest, Middle Yellow River and Middle Yangtze River integrated economic zones were abundant (50.3%). At the province level, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi and Sichuan provinces were rich in biomass resources, accounting for 25.8% of total biomass resources. Along with the increases in population, grain production, livestock development, afforestation area, and urbanization, as well as clean energy construction, the biomass resources and energy development in China would grow correspondingly in the future. The amount of biomass resources and energy exploration potential would increase to 38.17 and 22.46 EJ by 2030, and 66.19 and 38.85 EJ by 2060, respectively. There would be enormous development potential for transforming clean biomass energy products. Our results will be conducive to promoting biomass energy sustainable development, providing data support for the establishment of a clean and low-carbon energy resources census and information platform in China.


Key words: biomass resource, development potential, ARIMA model, uncertainty