Abstract: It is important to scientifically assess the ecological risk dynamics of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin for ensuring ecological security, which has characteristics of critical ecological status, unique ecological resources, and fragile ecosystems. Based on land cover data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we coupled GMOP (Grey Multi-Objective Planning) and GeoSOS-FLUS models to examine the trend of ecological risk changes in this region from 2000 to 2020. We further predicted the land use pattern and ecological risk in 2030 under multiple scenarios. The standard deviation ellipse analysis and risk index centroid analysis were combined to explore the spatial variations of ecological risks. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the area of woodland increased, that of grassland shrank, and the construction land expanded rapidly. The ecological risk was mainly at low and moderate levels, with the ecological risk index increasing from 0.166 to 0.172. From 2020 to 2030, under the natural development scenario, the area of construction land will significantly increase, the area of grassland and cultivated land will decrease, the ecological risk level will increase, and the area of minor risk region will reduce by 8143.63 km². Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of woodland will expand, the level of ecological risk will reduce, and the area of minor and low risk regions will increase by a total of 10552.17 km². Under the economic development and comprehensive development scenarios, the total area of minor and low risk regions will increase by 7164.60 and 9708.15 km², respectively. Compared with the natural development scenario, other three simulation scenarios exhibit the characteristics of extremely high risk region centroid migrating to the northwest, minor risk region centroid migrating to the southwest, and extremely high risk regions gathering. The results can provide theoretical basis for ecological risk prevention in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, land use, GMOP model, FLUS model, multi-scenario, Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin