Abstract: To quantitatively evaluate the long-term ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and its variations in the arid and semi-arid grassland coal power development region of China, we selected 29 indicators based on the DPSIR model to construct an ECC evaluation index system. With this system, we adopted the entropy weight method and integrated value method to evaluate the dynamic ECC of Hulunbuir, Xilingol, and Erdos, which are located in the eastern, central, and western Inner Mongolia. We analyzed the driving forces of different regions using principal component analysis, and the changes of different components and the correlations between different components. The results showed that: (1) from 2005 to 2015, the ECC increased slowly with a fluctuation in Hulunbuir, showed a trend of decreasing and then increasing in Xilingol, and tended to be stable in Erdos. (2) The ECC drivers differed slightly among regions. In general, the main driving forces of ECC included per capita GDP, disposable income of urban residents, the proportion of industrial output value in GDP, and per capita coal production. (3) The components of “state” and “human welfare” in Hulunbuir and Xilingol and the component of “ecosystem services” in Erdos were significantly correlated with the regional ECC. (4) The correlations of the components of ECC differed greatly among different regions. Improving residents’ living standards, implementing ecological protection, and reducing the intensity of coal power development can effectively improve ECC.

Key words: ecological carrying capacity, Inner Mongolian grassland, DPSIR model, correlation analysis