Abstract: The Shache irrigation area is an important area for agricultural planting in Xinjiang. To establish effective agricultural planting management and water resource allocation strategy, we analyzed water demands of three main crops (wheat, corn, and cotton) during the whole growing season in Shache irrigation area and their relationship with meteorological factors by using PenmanMonteith model and path analysis, based on the meteorological data of Shache County from 1990 to 2019. We further estimated crop yield through water demand-yield model, and analyzed the meteorological conditions in high-yield years to obtain important factors affecting crop yield. The results showed that water demands of wheat, corn, and cotton showed a slight upward trend from 1990 to 2019. Water demands of the crops in irrigated areas were affected by a variety of meteorological factors, with wind speed as the most important one. The meteorological conditions in the simulated high-yield years were different during different growing periods of the three crops. Temperature was one of the key factors leading to the fluctuation of crop yield. This study provides an effective reference for agricultural production and sustainable development in arid irrigated areas.

Key words: crop water demand, Penman-Monteith model, meteorological factor, path analysis, water demand-yield model.