Abstract: Division of production areas of the secondary Juglans mandshurica forests is important for sustainable forest management in the central and eastern regions of Northeast China. Based on the data of annual mean temperature, extremely high temperature, extremely low temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean annual sunshine, frost-free period, and accumulated temperature, we examined the impacts of climate on the volume growth of J. mandshurica forests. The dominant factors affecting the volume of Juglans mandshurica were determined using stepwise regression analysis. Through mathematical model simulation, the optimal model was selected and its precision was tested, and the secondary forest area of J. mandshurica was divided. The results showed that: (1) Mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature were the dominant factors affecting the volume growth of J. mandshurica, while the Delinco model was the best for describing the relationship between timber volume and the dominant factors (R²=0.89, AIC=640.07, LL=-67.16). (2) The accuracy of the mathematical model met the requirements by comparing and analyzing the relative error between the theoretical and actual volume values. (3) Based on the best-predicted model, the secondary J. mandshurica forests were divided into three production areas: the most suitable distribution area, the suitable distribution area, and the general distribution area. (4) Furthermore, a one-way analysis of variance revealed that the theoretical volume values of the three production areas were significantly different from each other (P<0.01), suggesting that the divisions of the three production areas was accurate and reliable. These results provide insights for rational management and distribution of secondary J. mandshurica forests.

Key words: Juglans mandshurica, timber volume, dominant factor, stepwise regression analysis, production area division.