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Risk analysis and regionalization of agrometeorological drought hazard in Jilin Province of Northeast China.

LIU Yu-ying**, SHI Da-ming, HU Yi-xin, ZHANG Chen-chen, ZHANG Ting   

  1. (Jilin Climate Center, Changchun 130062, China)
  • Online:2013-06-10 Published:2013-06-10

Abstract:

Based on the 1961-2010 observation data from 50 meteorological stations and the 1981-2010 drought disasters’ and agricultural economic data, and by using the theories of natural disasters systematic analysis as well as the methods of farmland water balance and disaster risk index, this paper analyzed the dangers of drought hazardcausing factors to agricultural production, the sensitivity of drought hazard-formative environments, the vulnerability of drought hazard-affected bodies, and the capability of drought prevention and disaster mitigation in Jilin Province of Northeast China. The comprehensive risk indices of different units were obtained by using the weighting comprehensive evaluation method, and the drought hazard affecting the agricultural production of the Province was spatially regionalized based on GIS technology. In the Province, the high risk region of drought disaster-causing factors was distributed in the Baicheng and most areas of Songyuan in western Jilin, the high sensitivity region of drought hazardformative environments was distributed in the areas of Baicheng, Songyuan, north of Siping, and south of Tonghua, the high vulnerability region of drought hazard-affected bodies was distributed in the economically more developed areas, including the most parts of Songyuan and Changchun, and Siping, and the region with high capacity of drought prevention and disaster mitigation was mainly distributed in Songyuan, Changchun, Siping, Jilin City, and Tonghua urban area and its surrounding areas. In considering the integrated risk level of all the drought hazard-causing factors, the drought risk affecting the agricultural production of Jilin Province could be classified into 5 levels, i.e., high, sub-high, medium, sub-low, and low, among which, high and sub-high risks  mainly occurred in the regions of Baicheng, Songyuan, Changchun, and Siping.
 

Key words: branch biomass, foliage biomass, linear mixed effects model,  , Cunninghamia lanceolata.