Abstract: Climatic factor is one of the decisive factors determining species distribution. Based on the data of Pinus massoniana distribution and 19 variables of climatic factors, using software QGIS 2.18.3, ArcGIS 10.1 and MaxEnt model, the present distribution area of P. massoniana was simulated, and its future distribution was predicted. We analyzed the climatic variables affecting the distribution of P. massoniana. The results showed that: (1) Among the 19 climatic variables, the driest monthly precipitation (bio14) and the coldest season average temperature (bio11) contributed more than 70% to the distribution of P. massoniana; (2) Based on climatic data, the future distribution of P. massoniana was predicted, and its future distribution area would  increase by 35.82%; (3) Using QGIS 2.18.3 software to predict the future climate factors, the forecast results showed that climate change was consistent with the future distribution pattern of P. massoniana. Our results indicate that P. massoniana has strong adaptability, and that future climate change would have positive effects on its distribution.

Key words: green roof, roof runoff, management mechanism, influence factor.