Abstract: Climate change is anticipated to alter habitat area, distribution and configuration of wildlife, exacerbating the extinction risk for endangered species. Sichuan golden snubnosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province is vulnerable to environmental changebecause it is genetically distinct and has a small population size with low genetic diversity. Simulations of habitat shifts and population dynamics under climate change can assist in recommending effective adaptive strategies for its conservation. Here, we built a species distribution model based on monkey occurrences associated with bioclimatic and environmental variables. We assessed the extent to which climate change would impact monkey habitat distribution and carrying capacity from the current to the 2050s. Using Vortex model combined with population parameters, we predicted the monkey population’s viability in the period of 100 years in existence of extreme weather disaster and climate change. Our results showed a potential habitat loss of 64.45% due to climate change by the 2050s, resulting in a decrease in the carrying capacity of 93.48%, 72.86% and 13.96% for the Dalongtan, Jinhoulin and Qianjiaping subpopulations, respectively. Without the influence of climate change, the Sichuan golden snubnosed monkey population size in Hubei Province would gradually increase, indicating that the population has certain fecundity. The greatest impact on reduction in population size occurs when extreme weather disasters and climate change happen simultaneously. However, sensitivity to extreme weather disaster and climate change varied among different subpopulations. The protection of current suitable habitat and connectivity between habitats as well as the provision of interventional protection for extreme weather disasters are fundamental ways to conserve the species.

Key words: long-term tillage, erosion-deposition area, carbon pool, stabilization mechanism, Stewart physical-chemical fractionation, carbon accumulation rate