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Spatiotemporal characteristics and risk analysis of summer corn waterlogging disaster in Jianghuai region.

ZHANG Gui-xiang1, HUO Zhi-guo1,2*, YANG Jian-ying1, ZHANG Lei3, WU Li1, WANG Tian-ying2, YANG Hong-yi1#br#   

  1. (1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2Colloborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China).
  • Online:2017-03-10 Published:2017-03-10

Abstract: To quantitatively evaluate the waterlogging disaster of summer corn and reveal its spatiotemporal characteristics in Jianghuai region, based on the daily precipitation data of 91 stations in the research area from 1961 to 2013, with the growth period data and waterlogging disaster data of summer corn coupled, the different waterlogging disaster grade samples during different growth periods were counted. By using partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, normality test and  interval estimation, the waterlogging disaster grade index of summer corn based on the effective rainfall during different growth periods was constructed and validated. The spatiotemporal distribution and risk distribution of summer corn waterlogging disaster were analyzed in the area from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that the rainfall of current waterlogging process, last ten days and the ten days before last ten days had positive correlation with the grade of waterlogging disaster. In the same grade of waterlogging disaster, the jointingtasseling stage’s threshold was the highest, followed by the tasseling mature stage, and the lowest for the emergencejointing stage. The occurrence of waterlogging disaster decreased in 1970s, and then increased gradually after 1980s. The high frequency zone of waterlogging disaster mainly distributed along the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, lake and coast, and moved gradually northward with the rain belt as the plant growth processed. In the last 50 years, the occurrence of waterlogging disaster generally increased in the emergence to tasseling stage, but mainly decreased in the tasseling to mature stage. The high value area of risk index gradually moved from southwest to northeast with the growth and development of plants.