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Predication of potential distribution of Haplocladium microphyllum in China based on MaxEnt model.

MAO Li-hui1,2, LI Yao1,2, LIU Chang1,2, FANG Yan-ming1,2*#br#   

  1. (1CoInnovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 2College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China).
  • Online:2017-01-10 Published:2017-01-10

Abstract: Based on 96 distributional records of Haplocladium microphyllum in China, we predicted the potential distribution of this species in China in different periods, e.g. last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP), at present and in 2070 by using MaxEnt model, ArcGIS 10.0 and DIVAGIS 7.5 software. The results showed that the accuracy of MaxEnt model was pretty high for modeling present potential distribution regions, and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) reached 0.94. The ideal regions for the present distribution include Sichuan Basin and the middlelower Yangtze Plain. Compared to the present distribution, the distribution of this species was smaller in LGM, and was restricted in the south of 35° N. On the other hand, the distribution region will be extended northward and westward in 2070. Jackknife test showed that the major factors (threshold) contributing to the potential distribution were annual mean temperature (-0.97 to 22.86 ℃), annual precipitation (445-2238 mm) and precipitation of the driest month (1-93 mm).

Key words: submergence, Sub1, shoot, rice, exogenous growth regulator, survival percentage.