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农村居民点时空变化特征及驱动力分析——以宁波市北仑区为例

冯佰香1,李加林1,2*,何改丽1,黄日鹏1   

  1. (1宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系, 浙江宁波 315211;2浙江省海洋文化与经济研究中心, 浙江宁波 315211)
  • 出版日期:2018-02-10 发布日期:2018-02-10

Spatialtemporal changes and driving forces of rural settlements: A case study of Beilun District, Ningbo.

FENG Bai-xiang1, LI Jia-lin1,2*, HE Gai-li1, HUANG Ri-peng1   

  1. (1Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China; 2Research Center for Marine Culture and Economy, ZhejiangProvince, Ningbo 315211, China).
  • Online:2018-02-10 Published:2018-02-10

摘要: 以地处东南沿海的宁波市北仑区农村居民点为研究对象,利用6期(1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年)TM/OLI遥感影像为数据源,运用土地利用动态度、转移模型、核密度估计、平均最邻近指数及景观格局指数等方法,对北仑区25年来农村居民点用地时空变化特征及驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:北仑区25年来农村居民点用地动态度基本为正值,居民点用地处于缓慢扩张趋势;农村居民点平均斑块面积增长趋势明显,年均增速为2.51%;平均斑块规模在5个研究时段中,前两时段主要受斑块数量影响,此后两时段受斑块数量和斑块总面积共同控制,最末时段则为斑块总面积主要影响;北仑区农村居民点斑块规模大小差异越来越显著。参与居民点用地流转的土地类型主要为耕地和林地,其中以耕地为主,城市建设对于居民点的占用不明显。农村居民点空间布局分异呈西部集聚成片、中部双核互动和东部零散错落格局;2015年北部岛屿(大榭)附近出现一个较为明显的高密度区;居民点区域整体分布模式由分散转变为聚集,并且聚集程度不断增加。北仑区农村居民点分布受人口、道路、地貌和政策等因素的综合作用。其中在1995—2000年、2000—2005年受人口影响效果突出;国道和县级道路走向与居民点布局联系密切;政策可促使居民点分布发生新的转变并奠定未来布局基础;居民点多分布在地势低平地(DEM<100 m)。

Abstract: Beilun, a district of Ningbo City, is located in the southeastern coastal area of China. Based on six periods TM/OLI remote sensing images of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, we applied landuse dynamic index, conversion matrix, kernel density estimation, average nearest neighbor index and landscape pattern index to analyze the spatialtemporal dynamics and driving forces of rural settlements in the last 25 years in Beilun District. The results showed that the landuse dynamic index was generally positive in rural settlements, and the residential land showed a slow expansion trend. The average patch area of rural residential area in Beilun increased in the last 25 years, with an average annual growth rate of 2.51%. In the first twoperiods studied here, the average patch size was mainly affected by their number. In the later two periods, the total number of patch and the total patch area were the drivers. At the last period, the total area of the patches was the dominant driving factor. The differences of patch size among rural settlements were more and more significant. Agricultural land and forest land were the dominant types of land conversion in the settlements, especially for agricultural land. The urban construction had no obvious impacts on the settlements. The spatial patterns of rural settlements were in agglomeration in the west, dualcore interaction in center and scattered distribution in the east. In 2015, there was an obvious highdensity area near the northern islands (Daxie). Theoverall distribution of the settlements was changed from dispersed pattern into clusters, with the degree of agglomeration continuing to increase. The distribution of rural settlements in Beilun was affected by population density, road, landscape and policy. Population growth significantlyaffected the spatial patterns of rural settlements in 1995-2000 and 2000-2005. The directions of state roads and county roads were closely linked with the spatial distribution of settlements.Policies can promote the changes of distribution of settlements and lay the foundation for the future distribution. The settlements were mostly distributed in the low-lying area  (DEM <100 m).