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Biome-BGC模型参数的敏感性和时间异质性

刘秋雨1,张廷龙1,2*,孙睿3,4,王博闻1,叶欣欣1,李一哲1#br#   

  1. (1西北农林科技大学资源环境学院, 陕西杨凌 712100; 2西北农林科技大学林学院生态预测与全球变化实验室, 陕西杨凌 712100; 3北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875; 4遥感科学国家重点实验室/北京师范大学/中国科学院遥感应用研究所, 北京 100875)
  • 出版日期:2017-03-10 发布日期:2017-03-10

Sensibility and time heterogeneity of Biome-BGC model parameters.

LIU Qiu-yu1, ZHANG Ting-long1,2*, SUN Rui3,4, WANG Bo-wen1, YE Xin-xin1, LI Yi-zhe1#br#   

  1. (1College of Resources and Environmental Science, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shanxi, China; 2Laboratory of Ecosystems Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shanxi, China; 3School of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 4State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University and Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100875, China).
  • Online:2017-03-10 Published:2017-03-10

摘要: 生态过程模型为研究陆表生态系统水、碳、氮等物质的循环提供了一种有效的手段。模型与数据同化结合可建立模拟与观测之间的桥梁,同时提高模型与观测两种方法揭示地表真实状况的有效性。但模型参数的特性,将直接影响到模型模拟及数据同化的精度。传统观念认为,生态过程模型参数在相同植被类型条件下是固定不变的,但近期研究已开始关注其时空异质性。本文以Biome-BGC模型为例,利用美国哈佛森林Environmental Monitoring Site (EMS)通量观测站的相关数据,对哈佛森林地区水、碳通量进行模拟。首先对模型参数进行敏感性分析;然后应用模拟退火算法,构造目标函数,使待优化的敏感参数在合理阈值范围内不断变动反复迭代,获取逐月的最优参数值;通过引入变异系数,对敏感参数的时间异质性进行分析。结果表明:生态过程模型参数最优值并非常量,而会随时间表现出异质性,而且各参数时间异质性大小差异显著。文中对Biome-BGC模型的敏感参数按时间异质性大小划分了相应的等级。研究结果有助于加深对生态过程模型参数特性的认识,为参数的合理取值及动态优化提供思路与依据,有助于进一步提高模型模拟和数据同化的精度与效率。

Abstract: Ecological process model provides an effective way for studying water, carbon and nitrogen cycles of terrestrial ecosystem. The combination of the model and data assimilation could build a link between observation and simulation, which improves the effectiveness of model and observation methods to reveal the real state of land surface, but the accuracy of simulation and assimilation is directly affected by model parameters. Parameters are constants in traditional opinion; however, some current studies have focused on the timespace heterogeneity of parameters. In this paper, we used Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site (EMS) data to simulate water and carbon flux in Harvard Forest area. Firstly, the sensitivity of parameters was analyzed. Additionally, in order to acquire monthly optimal values of parameters, the values of parameters were changed repeatedly in reasonable range, simulated annealing algorithm was used and objective function was built. Also, the time heterogeneity of sensitive parameter was analyzed through coefficient of variation. The results showed that the ecological model parameters were not constants, and the property of parameters changed with time. In addition, the heterogeneity of parameters was different. In this paper, the sensitive parameters in the Biome-BGC model were divided into corresponding levels based on their time heterogeneity. The results of this study could promote indepth understanding of ecological model parameters and provide an idea for identification and optimization of these parameters, which is helpful to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of model and data assimilation.