• 研究报告 •

### 基于APSIM模型识别气象因子对内蒙春小麦潜在产量的影响

1. (1中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室， 北京 100081;  2四川农业大学资源学院， 成都 611130;  3内蒙古生态与农业气象中心， 呼和浩特 010051;  4中国农业大学资源与环境学院， 北京 100193)〖HT5SS〗
• 出版日期:2017-03-10 发布日期:2017-03-10

### Identifying the effects of meteorological variables on spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia based on APSIM model.

ZHAO Jun-fang1*, PU Fei-yu2, YAN Wei-xiong3, XU Jing-wen2, LI Ning2, PAN Zhi-hua4, ZHANG Yi1, GUO Jian-ping1#br#

1. (1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Resources College, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; 3 Inner Mongolia Ecology and Agrometeorology Centre, Hohhot 010051, China; 4 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China).
• Online:2017-03-10 Published:2017-03-10

Abstract: Based on the spring wheat field trial data from agrometeorological experiment stations and daily meteorological data in Inner Mongolia, the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was analyzed by grey correlation method. The optimum meteorological factors impacting the potential yield of local spring wheat were determined. The response of spring wheat potential yield to climate change was explored. Overall, the potential yield of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia showed a decrease trend from 1961 to 2014, with an average 3560.84 kg·hm-2. Especially, the highest potential yield and the lowest yield were found from 1981 to 1990 (3681.33 kg·hm-2) and from 2001 to 2010 (3432.82 kg·hm-2), respectively. Regional differences in potential yields were significant: in the past 54 years, the distribution of spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia was in belt type gradually increasing from the middle to the east and the west. And the maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. The meteorological factors differed in affecting spring wheat potential yield in the different regions of Inner Mongolia. The major meteorological factors affecting the potential yield of spring wheat in the eastern area were the average minimum temperature and the average soil surface temperature during the growth period, followed by the average temperature, the total radiation and the average maximum temperature. The major factors affecting spring wheat potential yield in the western area were the average soil surface temperature, the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, followed by the average minimum temperature, the total potential evapotranspiration and the relative humidity. However, changes in spring wheat potential yield caused by average precipitation and wind speed were not obvious. The spring wheat yield in the middle area was most sensitive to solar radiation and soil temperature, followed by average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature; however, it was least sensitive to average wind speed and total precipitation. These results can provide technical support for analyzing the limiting factors of spring wheat growth and yield formation in wheatplanting areas in Inner Mongolia under the future climate change.