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基于APSIM模型识别气象因子对内蒙春小麦潜在产量的影响

赵俊芳1*,蒲菲堉2,闫伟兄3,徐精文2,李宁2,潘志华4,张祎1,郭建平1#br#   

  1. (1中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081;  2四川农业大学资源学院, 成都 611130;  3内蒙古生态与农业气象中心, 呼和浩特 010051;  4中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100193)〖HT5SS〗
  • 出版日期:2017-03-10 发布日期:2017-03-10

Identifying the effects of meteorological variables on spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia based on APSIM model.

ZHAO Jun-fang1*, PU Fei-yu2, YAN Wei-xiong3, XU Jing-wen2, LI Ning2, PAN Zhi-hua4, ZHANG Yi1, GUO Jian-ping1#br#   

  1. (1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Resources College, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; 3 Inner Mongolia Ecology and Agrometeorology Centre, Hohhot 010051, China; 4 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China).
  • Online:2017-03-10 Published:2017-03-10

摘要: 基于内蒙农业气象试验站春小麦多年田间试验数据和逐日气象数据,分析了农业生产系统模型APSIM在内蒙春小麦产区的适应性,运用灰色关联法提取影响春小麦产量的优势因子,确定影响春小麦潜在产量的最优气象因子,探讨潜在产量对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1961—2014年内蒙春小麦潜在产量总体呈降低的变化趋势,平均值为3560.84 kg·hm-2,其中20世纪80年代潜在产量最高为3681.33 kg·hm-2,21世纪初最低,为3432.82 kg·hm-2;区域间差异明显,近54年内蒙春小麦潜在产量分布由中间向东部和西部呈条带状逐渐增加,且3个区域中西部麦区潜在产量最大;影响内蒙古不同区域春小麦潜在产量的最优气象因子不同,其中,影响内蒙古东部麦区春小麦潜在产量的气象因子主要为生育期内平均最低温度和平均土壤表层温度,其次为平均温度、总辐射量和平均最高温度;影响西部春小麦潜在产量形成的因子为平均土壤表层温度、平均温度和平均最高温度,平均最低温度、总潜在蒸散量和空气湿度次之,而由总降水量和风速引起的内蒙古春小麦产量的变化不明显;中部麦区春小麦潜在产量形成对太阳总辐射和土壤表层温度最敏感,其次是平均最低温度、平均温度和平均最高温度,对平均风速和总降水量最不敏感。以上结果为今后在气候变化背景下开展解析内蒙小麦产区春小麦生长发育进程及产量形成的限制因素等研究提供了技术支撑。

Abstract: Based on the spring wheat field trial data from agrometeorological experiment stations and daily meteorological data in Inner Mongolia, the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was analyzed by grey correlation method. The optimum meteorological factors impacting the potential yield of local spring wheat were determined. The response of spring wheat potential yield to climate change was explored. Overall, the potential yield of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia showed a decrease trend from 1961 to 2014, with an average 3560.84 kg·hm-2. Especially, the highest potential yield and the lowest yield were found from 1981 to 1990 (3681.33 kg·hm-2) and from 2001 to 2010 (3432.82 kg·hm-2), respectively. Regional differences in potential yields were significant: in the past 54 years, the distribution of spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia was in belt type gradually increasing from the middle to the east and the west. And the maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. The meteorological factors differed in affecting spring wheat potential yield in the different regions of Inner Mongolia. The major meteorological factors affecting the potential yield of spring wheat in the eastern area were the average minimum temperature and the average soil surface temperature during the growth period, followed by the average temperature, the total radiation and the average maximum temperature. The major factors affecting spring wheat potential yield in the western area were the average soil surface temperature, the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, followed by the average minimum temperature, the total potential evapotranspiration and the relative humidity. However, changes in spring wheat potential yield caused by average precipitation and wind speed were not obvious. The spring wheat yield in the middle area was most sensitive to solar radiation and soil temperature, followed by average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature; however, it was least sensitive to average wind speed and total precipitation. These results can provide technical support for analyzing the limiting factors of spring wheat growth and yield formation in wheatplanting areas in Inner Mongolia under the future climate change.