江淮地区夏玉米涝渍灾害时空分布特征和风险分析

生态学杂志

江淮地区夏玉米涝渍灾害时空分布特征和风险分析

张桂香¹,霍治国^1,2*,杨建莹¹,张蕾³,吴立¹,汪天颖²,杨宏毅^1#br#

（¹中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081； ^2南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044； ^3国家气象中心，北京 100081)

出版日期:2017-03-10 发布日期:2017-03-10

Spatiotemporal characteristics and risk analysis of summer corn waterlogging disaster in Jianghuai region.

ZHANG Gui-xiang¹, HUO Zhi-guo^1,2*, YANG Jian-ying¹, ZHANG Lei³, WU Li¹, WANG Tian-ying², YANG Hong-yi^1#br#

(¹State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; ^2Colloborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; ^3National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China).

Online:2017-03-10 Published:2017-03-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了定量评估江淮地区夏玉米涝渍灾害和揭示其时空分布特征，基于1961—2013年91个观测站点的日雨量数据，耦合夏玉米生育期和涝渍灾情数据，统计夏玉米不同生育时段、不同涝渍等级的灾害样本，采用偏相关分析、多元线性回归、正态性检验、区间估计等方法，构建了基于有效降雨量的夏玉米分生育时段涝渍灾害的等级指标，并验证了指标的合理性；分析了区域1961—2010年夏玉米涝渍灾害的时空分布和风险分布。结果表明：夏玉米涝渍灾害等级与当前涝渍过程降雨量和前2旬逐旬降雨量呈显著正相关；同一等级涝渍灾害，拔节抽雄期指标阈值最高，抽雄成熟期的次之，出苗拔节期的最低；20世纪70年代涝渍灾害的发生有所减少，80年代后又逐渐增多；涝渍灾害的多发区主要分布在沿江、沿淮、沿湖和沿海地区，且随着生育进程的增加，多发区总体随雨带北移；近50年来出苗至抽雄阶段涝渍灾害的发生总体上呈增加趋势，抽雄至成熟阶段则以减少趋势为主；随着生育进程的增加，涝渍灾害风险指数的高值区逐渐由西南向东北移动。

Abstract: To quantitatively evaluate the waterlogging disaster of summer corn and reveal its spatiotemporal characteristics in Jianghuai region, based on the daily precipitation data of 91 stations in the research area from 1961 to 2013, with the growth period data and waterlogging disaster data of summer corn coupled, the different waterlogging disaster grade samples during different growth periods were counted. By using partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, normality test and interval estimation, the waterlogging disaster grade index of summer corn based on the effective rainfall during different growth periods was constructed and validated. The spatiotemporal distribution and risk distribution of summer corn waterlogging disaster were analyzed in the area from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that the rainfall of current waterlogging process, last ten days and the ten days before last ten days had positive correlation with the grade of waterlogging disaster. In the same grade of waterlogging disaster, the jointingtasseling stage’s threshold was the highest, followed by the tasseling mature stage, and the lowest for the emergencejointing stage. The occurrence of waterlogging disaster decreased in 1970s, and then increased gradually after 1980s. The high frequency zone of waterlogging disaster mainly distributed along the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, lake and coast, and moved gradually northward with the rain belt as the plant growth processed. In the last 50 years, the occurrence of waterlogging disaster generally increased in the emergence to tasseling stage, but mainly decreased in the tasseling to mature stage. The high value area of risk index gradually moved from southwest to northeast with the growth and development of plants.

张桂香1,霍治国1,2*,杨建莹1,张蕾3,吴立1,汪天颖2,杨宏毅1. 江淮地区夏玉米涝渍灾害时空分布特征和风险分析[J]. 生态学杂志.

ZHANG Gui-xiang1, HUO Zhi-guo1,2*, YANG Jian-ying1, ZHANG Lei3, WU Li1, WANG Tian-ying2, YANG Hong-yi1. Spatiotemporal characteristics and risk analysis of summer corn waterlogging disaster in Jianghuai region.[J]. cje.