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气候变暖背景下东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化

温泉沛1,2,周月华1,霍治国2,3*,李兰1,吴立4,张蕾5#br#   

  1. 1武汉区域气候中心, 武汉 430074; 2中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081; 3南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044; 4福建省气象服务中心, 福州 350001; 5国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2017-02-10 发布日期:2017-02-10

Risk changes of storm flood disasters in southeast China under climatic warming.

WEN Quan-pei1,2, ZHOU Yue-hua1, HUO Zhi-guo2,3*, LI Lan1, WU Li4, ZHANG Lei5#br#   

  1. (1 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China; 2 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, EarlyWarning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 4 Fujian Meteorological Service Center, Fuzhou 350001, China; 5 National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China).
  • Online:2017-02-10 Published:2017-02-10

摘要: 基于中国东南地区9省(区)1972—2013年的暴雨洪涝灾情资料,采用灰色关联法、正态信息扩散法,分别构建了基于受灾面积比重和成灾面积比重的暴雨洪涝灾害相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,分析了气候变暖前(1972—1992年)、后(1993—2013年)东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害的风险变化。结果表明: 东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害在20世纪80年代有较大范围的突变性增加,较东南地区变暖突变时段(1993年)有所提前;20世纪90年代,各省均先后出现了暴雨洪涝灾害相对灾情指数最大值;东南地区各省在变暖后大体上发生大灾和中灾的概率有所增加,出现小灾和微灾的概率有所变小,总体来看仍以中灾发生最为频繁,基本为不到2年一遇;除江苏外,东南地区其他省份变暖后大灾及以上级别暴雨洪涝灾害发生频率为变暖前的2~8倍,以广西增幅最大;在考虑了东南地区热带气旋带来的暴雨洪涝灾害影响后,变暖背景下各省的相对灾情风险指数除江苏减小7%外,其他均增大;增幅最大的是广西,达21%,变暖前后的高风险中心由原来的广东变为广西。

Abstract: Based on the meteorological disaster loss data of storm floods in nine provinces of southeast China from 1972 to 2013, the proportions of the disasteraffected areas and disasterdestroyed areas were integrated to establish relative storm flood disaster index, and storm flood risk assessment model was thereby constructed to analyze the risk change of storm flood disasters in southeast China before (1972-1992) and after (1993-2013) climatic warming, according to grey correlation method and normal information diffusion method. Storm flood disasters in the nine provinces showed a mutational change in the 1980s, which was earlier than climatic warming (1993). The maximum relative disaster index was detected in the 1990s in the nine provinces. The probabilities of severe and moderate disasters substantially increased, while the probabilities of light and small disasters showed an opposite tendency. In general, moderate disasters occurred with a high frequency (less than two years). The frequency of severe and oversevere disasters after climate warming was 2-8 times high as compared to that before climate warming in all provinces, except Jiangsu Province. Considering the effect of tropical cyclones on storm flood disasters, the relative disaster risk index in southeast China was generally increased after warming, except that there was a decrease of 7% in Jiangsu Province. The most significant increment was found in Guangxi Province (by 21%), and the high risk center moved from Guangdong Province to Guangxi Province after climate warming.