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基于突变级数法的广东省资源环境承载力动态

孙端1,2,陈颖彪1,2*,曹峥1,2,胡应龙1,2   

  1. (1广州大学地理科学学院, 广州 510006; 2广东省地理国情监测与综合分析工程技术研究中心, 广州 510006)  
  • 出版日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2019-06-10

Dynamics of resource and environment carrying capacity of Guangdong Province based on catastrophe progression method.

SUN Duan1,2, CHEN Ying-biao1,2*, CAO Zhen1,2, HU Ying-long1,2   

  1. (1College of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006,China; 2Guangdong Province Engineering Technology Research Center for Geographical Condition Monitoring and Comprehensive Analysis, Guangzhou 510006, China).
  • Online:2019-06-10 Published:2019-06-10

摘要: 资源环境承载力是可持续发展的重要基础,实现其有效评价对建设生态文明社会有着重要意义。本文从经济、社会、资源和环境4个方面选取14个评价指标,基于突变理论采用突变级数法,评估了广东省21个地级市2000—2015年城市综合资源环境承载力。结果表明:近15年广东省各市综合资源环境承载力指数整体上呈小幅度下降趋势;广东省从大部分地区处在高承载力范围逐渐变为珠三角地区城市综合承载力指数相对高而东莞、深圳城市综合承载力较弱;各子系统对城市综合承载力影响不同;资源环境复合系统为承载力支撑基础,经济社会复合系统为承载力的有力保障;其中,江门、汕头、惠州、佛山等市城市综合资源环境承载力指数最高,整体上表现为经济水平与资源环境越平衡的地区城市综合承载力越高;各子系统承载力指数变化呈现不同形态;经济子系统突显城市经济发展状况,经济水平越高则其承载力越高,整体呈现小幅增长模式,而流动人口加剧,导致社会子系统承载力指数出现小幅下降;资源子系统承载力基于资源保有量相对稳定的前提下状态较为稳定;环境子系统承载力则因环境污染而呈现下降趋势;广东省各市子系统承载力指数空间差异显著;经济社会复合系统承载力指数分布基本与各市的经济发展水平相当;资源环境复合系统承载力指数分布与广东省地形大致相符,呈现粤东粤西高,并逐渐向东莞、深圳珠三角地区降低。

关键词: 松鼠, 分子系统发育, 遗传多样性, 分子系统地理学

Abstract: The carrying capacity of resources and environment is important basis for sustainable development. Effective evaluation of carrying capacity of resources and environment is of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization society. Based on catastrophe progression method in catastrophe theory, we used 14 evaluation indices from four aspects of economy, society, resources and environment to evaluate the carrying capacity of urban comprehensive resources and environment of 21 prefecturelevel cities in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that in the 15 years, the index of comprehensive resources and environmental carrying capacity of Guangdong Province slightly decreased on the whole. Guangdong gradually changed from a high bearingcapacity province in most areas to a relatively high comprehensive bearing capacity index in the Pearl River Delta region and relatively weak comprehensive bearing capacity in Dongguan and Shenzhen. Each subsystem had different influence on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city. The composite system of resources and environment is the supporting foundation of carrying capacity, while the composite system of economy and society is the powerful guarantee of carrying capacity. Among all cities, Jiangmen, Shantou, Huizhou and Foshan had the highest comprehensive carrying capacity index of resources and environment, indicating that the more balanced the economic level and resources and environment, the higher the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities. The bearing capacity index of each subsystem changed with different forms. The economic subsystem highlighted the status of urban economic development. The higher the economic level, the higher the carrying capacity, the smaller the overall growth pattern. Due to the aggravation of floating population, the carrying capacity index of the social subsystem declined slightly. Based on the premise of relative stability of resources, the carrying capacity index of resource subsystem was relatively stable. The carrying capacity index of environmental subsystem showed a downward trend due to environmental pollution. Spatially, the differences of bearing capacity index of the subsystems in Guangdong were significant. The index of carrying capacity of economic and social composite system was basically matched with the economic development level of each city. Meanwhile, the index of carrying capacity of the composite system of resources and environment was roughly consistent with the topography of Guangdong, with the index being high in eastern and western Guangdong, and gradual decline in the Pearl River Delta in Dongguan and Shenzhen.

Key words: Sciurus vulgaris, molecular phylogeny, genetic diversity, molecular phylogeography.