• 研究报告 •

农村居民点时空变化特征及驱动力分析——以宁波市北仑区为例

1. (1宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系， 浙江宁波 315211；2浙江省海洋文化与经济研究中心， 浙江宁波 315211)
• 出版日期:2018-02-10 发布日期:2018-02-10

Spatialtemporal changes and driving forces of rural settlements: A case study of Beilun District, Ningbo.

FENG Bai-xiang1, LI Jia-lin1,2*, HE Gai-li1, HUANG Ri-peng1

1. (1Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China; 2Research Center for Marine Culture and Economy, ZhejiangProvince, Ningbo 315211, China).
• Online:2018-02-10 Published:2018-02-10

Abstract: Beilun, a district of Ningbo City, is located in the southeastern coastal area of China. Based on six periods TM/OLI remote sensing images of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, we applied landuse dynamic index, conversion matrix, kernel density estimation, average nearest neighbor index and landscape pattern index to analyze the spatialtemporal dynamics and driving forces of rural settlements in the last 25 years in Beilun District. The results showed that the landuse dynamic index was generally positive in rural settlements, and the residential land showed a slow expansion trend. The average patch area of rural residential area in Beilun increased in the last 25 years, with an average annual growth rate of 2.51%. In the first twoperiods studied here, the average patch size was mainly affected by their number. In the later two periods, the total number of patch and the total patch area were the drivers. At the last period, the total area of the patches was the dominant driving factor. The differences of patch size among rural settlements were more and more significant. Agricultural land and forest land were the dominant types of land conversion in the settlements, especially for agricultural land. The urban construction had no obvious impacts on the settlements. The spatial patterns of rural settlements were in agglomeration in the west, dualcore interaction in center and scattered distribution in the east. In 2015, there was an obvious highdensity area near the northern islands (Daxie). Theoverall distribution of the settlements was changed from dispersed pattern into clusters, with the degree of agglomeration continuing to increase. The distribution of rural settlements in Beilun was affected by population density, road, landscape and policy. Population growth significantlyaffected the spatial patterns of rural settlements in 1995-2000 and 2000-2005. The directions of state roads and county roads were closely linked with the spatial distribution of settlements.Policies can promote the changes of distribution of settlements and lay the foundation for the future distribution. The settlements were mostly distributed in the low-lying area  (DEM <100 m).