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• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

大兴安岭林火发生的时空聚集性特征

李顺1,2,吴志伟1*,梁宇1,贺红士3,4#br#   

  1. (1中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016; 2中国科学院大学, 北京 100049; 3东北师范大学, 长春 130000; 4美国密苏里大学, 哥伦比亚 65211)
  • 出版日期:2017-01-10 发布日期:2017-01-10

The temporal and spatial clustering characteristics of forest fires in the Great Xing’an Mountains.

LI Shun1,2, WU Zhi-wei1*, LIANG Yu1, HE Hong-shi3,4#br#   

  1. (1Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China; 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130000, China; 4University of Missouri, Columbia, 65211, USA).
  • Online:2017-01-10 Published:2017-01-10

摘要: 林火是大兴安岭林区重要的干扰因子之一,揭示其发生的时空分布特征和规律,对林火安全管理和未来气候变化下的林火预测具有重要作用。本文以大兴安岭1967—2006年发生的林火为研究对象,将其视为一个在时间和空间上完全随机的点过程。采用时间点过程方法中的变异系数和阿伦因子及空间点格局分析中的Ripley K函数和Kernel空间密度函数等估算方法,分别对大兴安岭林火时间和空间分布的聚集性范围和尺度进行分析。结果表明:在较小的时间尺度上,林火分布趋向随机过程,随着观测时间长度增大,分布的聚集性表现越显著;空间分布上,林火在一定距离尺度内表现为聚集分布,超过该尺度则为随机泊松分布;林火的分布往往聚集在某些特定区域,存在明显的林火高发区。这些结果进一步揭示了大兴安岭林火时空的内在分布规律,但对于导致这些林火时空分布格局的机制还有待进一步研究。

Abstract: Forest fire is one of the main disturbances in the Great Xing’an Mountains. Revealing temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of fire occurrence in this region was important for local fire management and fire prediction under climate change scenarios. Generally, distribution patterns of fire occurrence may vary at temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we used historical fire ignitions occurred between 1967 and 2006 to derive fire clustering characteristics at various spatial and temporal scales in the Great Xing’an Mountains. We employed the coefficient of variation and Allen Factor to derive the temporal clustering scope of fire occurrence, and used the Ripley’s K function and Kernel density methods to estimate the spatial clustering characteristics of fire occurrence. The results showed that at a fine temporal scale, fire distribution was in a tendency of stochastic process. The timeclustering phenomenon was clearly visible as the observation time increased. Spatially, the fires showed aggregated distribution characteristics within certain distances. Exceeding these distances, fires showed stochastic Poisson distribution characteristics. The forest fires were located in certain areas, where there was a significant high occurrence density across the landscape. These results indicated temporal and spatial distribution patterns of forest fires in the Great Xing’an Mountains, yet lacked an indepth research about the impact mechanism of the fire patterns, which remains to be solved.