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生态学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 919-928.doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202103.034

• 技术与方法 • 上一篇    

物候模型支持下的杭州市春茶霜冻害时空变化及风险区划

范辽生1*,金志凤2,王培娟3,黄海涛4,杨军1,朱兰娟1   

  1. 1杭州市气象局, 杭州 310051;2浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017; 3中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081; 4杭州市农业科学研究院茶叶研究所, 杭州 310024)
  • 出版日期:2021-03-10 发布日期:2021-03-17

Spatiotemporal variation and risk regionalization of frost damage of spring tea in Hangzhou City based on the phenological model.

FAN Liao-sheng1*, JIN Zhi-feng2, WANG Pei-juan3, HUANG Hai-tao4, YANG Jun1, ZHU Lan-juan1   

  1. (1Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Hangzhou 310051, China; 2Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China; 3Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 4Tea Research Institute, Hangzhou Academy of Agricultural Science and Technology, Hangzhou 310024, China).
  • Online:2021-03-10 Published:2021-03-17

摘要: 开展春茶霜冻害风险区划对名优茶优化布局具有科学指导意义。基于杭州2015—2020年龙井43品种春茶物候观测资料、1951—2020年杭州国家基准气候站和2010—2020年263个区域自动气象站逐日气象资料,应用有效积温物候模型估算历史缺失年份春茶萌发初日数据,分析春茶生产霜冻害的时空分布特征,构建春茶霜冻害灾损率的加权平均模型,研制春茶霜冻害风险空间分布图。结果表明:过去70年来,春茶萌发初日提前的速度不及终霜日;春茶霜冻害年份减少,轻度霜冻害年份减少,中度霜冻害年份变化趋势不明显且年代际间波动大,重度以上霜冻害年份增加;各等级年霜冻害日数和霜冻害年份的变化趋势基本一致;春茶霜冻害年份轻度、中度、重度和特重出现频率分别为31.4%、18.6%、4.3%和1.4%,年灾损率无明显趋势变化;海拔每上升100 m,春茶萌发初日、终霜日分别推迟约1.3和2.6 d,春茶霜冻灾损率增加约1%,海拔越高,春霜冻害风险越高;杭州春茶生产霜冻害分布地域特征明显,春茶霜冻害基本无风险区(灾损率小于10%)约占杭州市总面积的25.2%,主要分布在杭州南部千岛湖、北部西湖产区、钱塘江河谷和较大水体周边,是发展春茶生产可优先考虑的区域;中度以上风险仅占杭州市总面积的6.3%。杭州市春茶生产霜冻害危害区域小,且灾害等级偏轻,适宜优质名优茶生产。

关键词: 龙井43, 萌发初日, 春茶霜冻, 风险区划, 杭州市

Abstract: Regionalization of frost damage risk on spring tea is helpful for optimizing the distribution of high-quality tea planting. Based on the phenology data of Longjing 43 spring tea in 2015-2020 and the meteorological daily data of Hangzhou National Reference Climatological Station in 1951-2020 and 263 regional automatic weather stations in 2010-2020, we estimated early germination date of spring tea in the missing years using an effective accumulated temperature phenology model, and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of frost damage in spring tea production in Hangzhou City. The spatial distribution maps of frost damage risk for spring tea were developed by conducting the weighted average model of frost damage rate of spring tea. Results showed that the dates for early germination of spring tea and final frost were advanced during the past 70 years, with the advance of final frost date being faster than that of early germination date. The frost years of spring tea were decreasing due to decreasing years of mild frost, whereas severe frost years had a light increasing. The inter-annual variation of moderate frost damage was not obvious and fluctuated greatly among different decades. The variations of frost damage days at different grades were basically consistent with frost damage years. The occurrence frequency of mild, moderate, severe, and extra severe frost was 31.4%, 18.6%, 4.3% and 1.4%, respectively. There was no significant variation in the annual damage rate. For every 100m elevation rising, the early germination date of spring tea and the last frost date were delayed by about 1.3 and 2.6 days, respectively, and the frost damage rate of spring tea increased by about 1%. Generally, the risk of spring frost damage would be higher with increasing altitude. The frost damage on spring tea production showed regional variation in Hangzhou. The frost-free area of spring tea (its damage rate was less than 10%) accounted for 25.2% of the total area of Hangzhou, which was mainly distributed in the Qiandao lake region, the West Lake region, the Qiantang River valley and areas surrounded by large water bodies. Those regions were the priority areas for spring tea planting. The areas with the high risk of frost damage only accounted for 6.3% of total area of Hangzhou. Our results indicated that Hangzhou is suitable for planting high-quality and famous teas-because of the small frost damaging areas of spring tea and the light disaster level.

Key words: Longjing 43, early germination date, spring tea frost, risk zoning, Hangzhou.