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长江中下游地区暴雨特征及洪涝淹没风险分析

俄有浩,霍治国*   

  1. (中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2016-04-10 发布日期:2016-04-10

Rainstorm characteristics and flood inundation risk in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River.

E You-hao, HUO Zhig-uo*   

  1. (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China).
  • Online:2016-04-10 Published:2016-04-10

摘要: 利用1961—2012年长江中下游区域73个气象站日降水量数据,分析了长江中下游暴雨强度和最大连续降水的特征、空间分布和年际变化趋势,获取了不同暴雨重现期的暴雨强度。在此基础上,利用改进的WetSpa Extension模型,模拟了长江中下游不同潜在暴雨发生频率和连续强降水情景下的长江干流和出口断面的产汇流和洪水演进过程,分析了不同暴雨重现期的暴雨强度和连续性强降水对长江中下游干支流、湖泊、沼泽地和农田的洪涝潜在淹没范围、深度空间分布。结果表明:沿长江的湖北、安徽、江西和江苏是长江中下游地区暴雨多发区;近50多年来,暴雨日数和最大日暴雨量表现为不显著性增加趋势;研究区“百年一遇”、“五十年一遇”和“十年一遇”等暴雨重现期的暴雨强度分别为220、190和120 mm·d-1;最大连续强降雨量超过400 mm;“百年一遇”暴雨形成的洪涝对研究区低洼区淹没深度1.0±0.5 m的面积可达4.3×104 km2,其中农田淹没面积占83.7%;“五十年一遇”的暴雨形成的洪涝对研究区淹没深度1.0±0.5 m的面积可达2.6×104 km2,其中农田的淹没面积占74.1%;“十年一遇”暴雨形成的洪涝对研究区淹没深度1.0±0.5 m的面积可达1.6×104 km2,其中,农田淹没面积占65.1%;大于400 mm连续性强降水形成的洪涝对研究区农田、湿地等低洼区平均淹没深度1.0±0.5 m的区域面积可达到6.7×104 km2,其中,农田的受淹面积占88.1%。暴雨洪涝淹没空间分布结果有助于长江中下游地区不同暴雨强度下暴雨洪涝的防控、风险分析和灾后评估。

关键词: 羧化效率, 间作玉米, 行比, 光合特性

Abstract:

The daily precipitation data from 73 meteorological stations covering the areas of middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River from 1961 to 2012 were used to analyze the characteristics and distribution of rainstorm intensity and the maximal consecutive rainfall. The rainstorm intensity at different recurrence intervals of rainstorm such as 100-year and 50-year was obtained. Based on these spatial analyses and the spatial data such as digital elevation model (DEM), land use and soil type, the advanced WetSpa Extension model was used to simulate the runoff yield and concentration into the trunk stream of Yangtze River under different rainstorm intensities and consecutive rainfall scenarios. And then, the potential submerged areas and the spatial distributions of rainstorm flooding in croplands, wetlands and lakes were mapped using the GIS methods. The results showed that the regions along the Yangtze River belonging to Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi and Jiangsu provinces were the highest occurrence areas of rainstorm. The rainstorm days and the maximal daily precipitation increased insignificantly in the past 50 years. The rainstorm intensities of 100-year, 50-year and 10-year recurrence intervals were 220, 190 and 120 mm·d-1 respectively, and the maximum consecutive rainfall in the study area was more than 400 mm. Consequently, the areas submerged in 0.5-1.5 m by flooding under the four extreme rainstorm scenarios were
4.3×104, 2.6×104, 1.6×104 and 6.7×104 km2, and the submerged cropland accounted for 83.7%, 74.1%, 65.1% and 88.1%, respectively. These results and the submerged area maps can help to prevent storm flooding, analyze the flood risk and evaluate the disaster losses.

Key words: carboxylation, row ratio, photosynthesis characteristic, intercropped maize