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生态学杂志 ›› 2003, Vol. ›› Issue (4): 107-110.

• 生态建设经验 • 上一篇    下一篇

长春市人口综合调控对策研究

曹勇宏1, 王德利1, 金明川2   

  1. 1. 东北师范大学草地研究所, 教育部植被生态重点实验室, 长春, 130024;
    2. 长春市城乡规划设计研究院, 长春, 130021
  • 收稿日期:2002-03-29 修回日期:2002-11-05 出版日期:2003-04-10
  • 通讯作者: 王德利
  • 基金资助:
    长春市政府资助项目;东北师范大学校青年基金资助项目(111441)

Researches on comprehensive controlling measures for the population in Changchun City

CAO Yonghong1, WANG Deli1, JIN Mingchuan2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China;
    2. Changchun Design & Research Institute of Urban & Rural Planning, Changchun 130021, China
  • Received:2002-03-29 Revised:2002-11-05 Online:2003-04-10

摘要: 正确预测和掌握人口的发展规律对于合理制定人口政策、控制人口增长、保持社会稳定都具有十分重要的意义。应用系统动力学的原理和方法,对长春市的人口进行了动态仿真研究,认为长春市的人口增长以机械增长为主。综合考虑了人口的出生率、死亡率、人口政策、环境污染、经济发展水平、育龄妇女生育指数等对人口有重要影响的几个因子,对人口系统的预测应重点放在控制额定迁入率、转变经济增长方式、提高用人效率和调整劳动力结构等方面的人口调控对策.

关键词: 北方半干旱区, 集雨补灌, 集雨农业, 节水农业, 发展模式

Abstract: It's very important to master the law of population. This paper predicts the population's dynamic variety of Changchun City by system dynamic mode. It draws a conclusion that immigrant population made a great contribution to increasing of Changchun City's population.Furthermore,the immigrant rate,the increasing rate of employment post,the house increasing rate and bearing index of women are sensitive variables which affect the population greatly.By controlling these variables,the methods which the emphases include controlling immigrant rate's transforming economic development mode's, improving work efficiency and adjusting the structure of labour are put forward. The progress trend of the population system under these countermeasures was also simulated.

Key words: Northern China semi-arid region, Rainwater harvesting for supplemental irrigation, Water-saving agriculture, Developing model

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