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东北地区近50年来极端降水和干燥事件时空演变特征

孙凤华1;吴志坚2;杨素英1   

  1. 1中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 沈阳 110016;2沈阳建材地质工程勘察院, 沈阳 110016

  • 收稿日期:2006-02-15 修回日期:2006-03-24 出版日期:2006-07-10 发布日期:2006-07-10

Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation and dryness events in Northeast China in last 50 years

SUN Fenghua1; WU Zhijian2; YANG Suying1   

  1. 1Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China; 2 Shenyang Institute of Exploration for Construct Material & Geology Engineering, Shenyang 110016, China

  • Received:2006-02-15 Revised:2006-03-24 Online:2006-07-10 Published:2006-07-10

摘要: 利用东北地区93个国家常规气象观测站1951~2002年逐日降水资料,分析了东北地区的暴雨、严重干燥事件等极端降水事件的时空演变特征,从极端降水事件发生频率和强度变化的角度解释旱涝灾害加剧的原因。结果表明,近52年来,小雨事件发生频次显著减少;暴雨发生频次变化不大,但强度增强;严重干燥事件显著增加;严重湿润事件显著下降。因此,在东北地区降水总量具有减少趋势的背景下,降水事件还有向极端化发展的倾向,降水分布变得更不均匀,从而可能引起更多、更强的旱涝灾害,尤其是旱灾,从而对东北地区的生态环境,尤其是农业生产带来不利的影响,这应引起重视。

关键词: 冬小麦, 肥料组合, 水分供需状况, 水分利用率

Abstract: The daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2002 recorded by 93 weather stations in Northeast China were used to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation and dryness events in this part of China, and the causes of intensifying drought and flood disasters were analyzed from the viewpoint of the changes in the frequency and strength of these events. The results showed that in last 52 years, sprinkle had an obvious decreased frequency, rainstorm had a little change of its frequency but an obvious increased intensity, severe dryness was obviously increased, while severe wetness was obviously decreased. Under the background of a little change of total precipitation, precipitation events had an obvious trend of extremeness, and the distribution of precipitation became more asymmetric, which might be one of the main causes of the higher frequency and enhanced intensity of drought and flood, and bring with negative effects on the eco-environment, and especially the agricultural production of Northeast China.

Key words: Winter wheat, Fertilizer combinations, Water-supply-demand status, Water use efficiency