滇西北生态脆弱区生态足迹动态变化与预测研究——以云南省丽江纳西族自治县为例

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预测研究是生态足迹研究中较为重要的一个研究方向,通过对生态足迹未来发展趋势的拟合,能够有效克服生态足迹计算结果的静态性缺陷,并对区域可持续发展状态的预测、预警和相关政策制定具有实际意义。本文以丽江纳西族自治县为研究对象,运用生态足迹模型,对丽江县1949～2001年共53年的生态足迹进行了计算,在此基础上分析了丽江纳西族自治县不同时期的可持续发展状态,并运用逐步回归分析方法对未来近20年的生态足迹变化进行了模拟分析。结果表明,从1949～2001年,丽江纳西族自治县的人均生态足迹呈整体上升趋势。从0.2938～1.3518 hm²·人^-1,人均生态足迹增长近4.6倍,表明在人民生活水平逐渐得到改善的同时,不断增长的消费水平对当地生态环境造成的压力也日益加剧;从不同时期来看,丽江纳西族自治县均处在生态盈余状态,社会经济的发展与生态环境的保护协调程度较好;生态足迹模拟预测结果表明,如保持现有的发展速度,丽江纳西族自治县的人均生态足迹将不断增长,并在2015年超过人均生态承载力,使发展进入不可持续状态。

关键词: 九顶山, 红桦种群, 空间格局, 距离方法

Abstract: Prediction research is one of the important issues in ecological footprint(EF) study,which could overcome the static limitation of EF calculation through simulating the changing trend of EF,and have practical meaning in predicting and making strategic decision on regional sustainable development.In this study,the concept of EF and its calculation method were introduced to quantitatively assess the sustainability of Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County,northwest Yunnan Province,from 1949 to 2001.Based on the TM images in 1988,1996 and 2001,the calculation of the ecological capacity(EC) showed that on the whole,the EF of this County had an ascending trend from 1949 to 2001,being increased from 0.2938 hm²穋apita^-1 in 1949 to 1.351 8 hm²穋apita^-1 in 2001,and thus,the pressure on local ecological environment becoming more and more serious because of the rising consumption level.In test period,this County was under 'ecological surplus',and there was a harmonious relationship between social-economic development and environment.The prediction results indicated that the EF would be higher than the EC in 2015,if the present development rate could be kept,which meant that Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County would use more biologically productive land within its borders,and highly depend upon external ecosystems to provide its needed food,material,energy resource and waste digestion.Such a development state should be unsustainable.

Key words: Jiuding Mountain, Betula albo-sinensis population, Spatial pattern, T-square

中图分类号:

蒋依依, 王仰麟, 张源. 滇西北生态脆弱区生态足迹动态变化与预测研究——以云南省丽江纳西族自治县为例[J]. 生态学杂志, 2005, (12): 1418-1424.

JIANG Yiyi, WANG Yanglin, ZHANG Yuan . Dynamic change and its prediction of ecological footprint in ecotone of Yunnan Province:A case study of Lijiang Naxi Autonomous County[J]. cje, 2005, (12): 1418-1424.

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