欢迎访问《生态学杂志》官方网站,今天是 分享到:

生态学杂志

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省水蜜桃物候、品质和产量对气候变化的响应

杨栋1*,朱佳敏2,丁烨毅1,金志凤3   

  1. 1宁波市气象局, 浙江宁波 315012;2北仑区气象局, 浙江宁波 315211;3浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017)
  • 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2019-11-10

Responses of phenology, quality and yield of juicy peach to climate change in Zhejiang Province.

YANG Dong1*, ZHU Jia-min2, DING Ye-yi1, JIN Zhi-fen3   

  1. (1Ningbo Bureau of Meteorology, Ningbo 315012, Zhejiang, China; 2Beilun District Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China; 3Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China).
  • Online:2019-11-10 Published:2019-11-10

摘要: 基于2003—2017年奉化地区中、晚熟水蜜桃的生物学和气象资料,利用GA-BP神经网络构建水蜜桃物候、品质和产量模型,结合浙江省67个基本气象站1971—2017年观测资料,反演和建立浙江省各地物候、品质和产量序列,分析水蜜桃物候、品质和产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:集合模型对物候期模拟的绝对误差基本≤1.5 d,对品质及产量模拟的相对误差分别为5%和5%~7%;近47年,浙江中、晚熟水蜜桃始花期、成熟期和落叶期呈提前趋势,中熟水蜜桃营养生长历期显著缩短,晚熟水蜜桃生殖生长的历期显著延长;20世纪80年代起,中、晚熟水蜜桃物候期年际波动增大;中熟品种生殖生长历期呈北涨南降,营养生长历期呈下降趋势;晚熟品种生殖生长历期呈增长趋势,其中,显著增长区主要集中于宁波—金华—衢州一带,营养生长历期整体波动相对较小;中熟水蜜桃品质整体呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-0.01·10 a-1;晚熟品种品质增长趋势极显著,气候倾向率为0.032·10 a-1;中熟水蜜桃气候品质显著下降区集中于宁波—绍兴—金华—衢州一带,气候倾向率小于-0.015·10 a-1;晚熟水蜜桃品质中北部增幅大于南部,其中,宁波和嘉兴地区气候倾向率大于0.04·10 a-1;中、晚熟水蜜桃产量的气候倾向率分别为0.17 t·hm-2·10 a-1和-0.093 t·hm-2·10 a-1。东部沿海及杭州、绍兴、金华交界地区单产增长趋势显著,气候倾向率大于0.18 t·hm-2·10 a-1;浙江东北部地区晚熟水蜜桃单产降低显著,其中,嘉兴中部及宁波北部地区气候倾向率小于-0.2 t·hm-2·10 a-1,增长区主要集中于浙江南部地区和西北部分地区。

关键词: 尺度效应, 响应时间, 降雨强度, 喀斯特

Abstract: Based on biological and meteorological data of medium and late ripening juicy peaches in Fenghua, Zhejiang from 2003 to 2017, simulation models of phenology, quality and yield of juicy peaches were built using GA-BP neural network. The phenology, quality and yield series of juicy peaches in Zhejiang Province were established based on observation data from 67 basic meteorological stations from 1971 to 2017, then the responses of phenology, quality and yield of juicy peaches to climate change was analyzed. The absolute error of ensemble model for phenological simulation was less than 1.5 days, and the relative error of quality and yield simulation was 5% and 5%-7%, respectively. During the past 47 years, the initial flowering, mature and leaf fall periods of medium and lateripening peaches were advanced, the vegetative growth period of medium-ripening peaches was significantly shortened, and the period of reproductive growth of late-ripening peaches was significantly prolonged. Since the 1980s, the interannual phenological fluctuation of medium and late-ripening peaches increased. Reproductive growth duration of medium-ripening varieties increased in the northern part of the province and decreased in the south, while the vegetative growth duration declined. Reproductive growth duration of lateripening varieties increased. The areas with significant increase were mainly concentrated in Ningbo JinhuaQuzhou, while the vegetative growth duration had relatively small fluctuation across the province. The quality of medium-ripening peaches showed a downward trend, with a climatic tendency rate of -0.01·10 a-1. The quality of late-ripening peaches showed a very significantly upward trend, with a climatic tendency rate of 0.032·10 a-1. The climatic quality of medium-ripening peaches decreased significantly in Ningbo ShaoxingJinhuaQuzhou, with a climatic tendency rate less than -0.015·10 a-1. The magnitude of the enhancement of the quality of late-ripening peaches in the northcentral part was greater than that in the south, with the climatic tendency rate in Ningbo and Jiaxing was greater than 0.04·10 a-1. The climatic tendency rates of medium and late-ripening peach yield were 0.17  and -0.093 t·hm-2·10 a-1, respectively. In the eastern coastal areas and the border areas of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Jinhua, the yield per unit area increased significantly, with a climatic tendency rate being greater than 0.18 t·hm-2·10 a-1. In the northeastern part of Zhejiang, the yield of lateripening peaches decreased significantly, with the climatic tendency rate in central Jiaxing and northern Ningbo being less than -0.2 t·hm-2·10 a-1, and the areas with increasing yield per unit area were mainly concentrated in the southern part of Zhejiang and the northwestern part of Ningbo.

Key words: scale effect, response time, rainfall intensity, karst.